{ "ticker": { "uuid": "113c8580-623d-4804-9546-6e5651a769f0", "symbol": "ARP", "name": "Arctic Paper S.A.", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.672, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.887, "architecture_energy": 18.286, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 51.415, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.14, "rotation_up": 33.68, "upward_expansion": 22.89, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 18.28, "downward_expansion": 56.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.529467, 16.145818, 16.161848, 16.960877 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.5, "trend_reference": 18.1619, "distance_from_trend": -0.036444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.791364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.536931, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.47501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150485, "excess_performance": -0.21198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.536931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071125, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22475, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150485, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86761, "relative_activity": 1.277688, "balance": 0.558183, "dry_up": 0.890811, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045732, "annualized_volatility": 0.288587, "from_high_reference": -0.392361, "from_low_reference": 0.187729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.1619, "fair_value_reference": 37.791364, "structural_low": 14.734, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021363, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.019863, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.187852, "worst_return": -0.225602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.076037, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.146122, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.197452, "worst_return": -0.315327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.189472, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.293339, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.365605, "worst_return": -0.423367, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.196202, "energy": 37.967511, "activity_lines": [ 15.7708, 15.591782, 16.159771, 17.134994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.6, "volume": 57377, "typical_volume": 65677.55, "trend": 18.313567, "fair_value": 37.941718, "relative_strength": -26.164806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.603972, "energy": 32.658789, "activity_lines": [ 16.050133, 15.798, 16.109738, 17.013366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.5, "volume": 86761, "typical_volume": 67904.7, "trend": 18.1619, "fair_value": 37.791364, "relative_strength": -22.47501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.88745, "energy": 18.285659, "activity_lines": [ 16.529467, 16.145818, 16.161848, 16.960877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }