{ "ticker": { "uuid": "114526de-5eda-4c00-b66e-108f719614fe", "symbol": "300811", "name": "POCO Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.962, "architecture_energy": 32.322, "architecture_maturity": 58.258, "architecture_confidence": 51.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.47, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 16.22, "deceleration": 72.54, "rotation_down": 63.38, "downward_expansion": 41.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.173334, 74.595455, 77.015692, 73.397697 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 70.980003, "trend_reference": 68.319318, "distance_from_trend": 0.038945, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.332957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.759851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.424047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.260869, "excess_performance": 0.253469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038945, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162487, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.759851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190108, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.13424, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.260869, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77139171, "relative_activity": 1.264153, "balance": 1.226356, "dry_up": 1.246124, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197274, "annualized_volatility": 0.797347, "from_high_reference": -0.348748, "from_low_reference": 0.830809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.319318, "fair_value_reference": 40.332957, "structural_low": 51.312897, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021441, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.026296, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.174313, "worst_return": -0.177205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.135463, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179656, "worst_return": -0.326075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.024894, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.109376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.828665, "worst_return": -0.199895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112374, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": 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65.477504, "fair_value": 39.087034, "relative_strength": 32.521714, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.039169, "energy": 59.318572, "activity_lines": [ 93.14, 89.467948, 79.040755, 72.855123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 84.93, "volume": 84731298, "typical_volume": 62855829.8, "trend": 66.590472, "fair_value": 39.425765, "relative_strength": 31.92551, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.978951, "energy": 52.173175, "activity_lines": [ 90.421334, 89.500937, 80.323972, 74.110122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.419998, "volume": 71190478, "typical_volume": 62768866.05, "trend": 67.042179, "fair_value": 39.652734, "relative_strength": 10.702237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.47973, "energy": 16.766382, "activity_lines": [ 81.737333, 85.694324, 79.60666, 74.034608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.189999, "volume": 80409107, "typical_volume": 63196214.15, "trend": 67.442596, "fair_value": 39.872336, "relative_strength": 5.73344, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.97321, "energy": 20.177408, "activity_lines": [ 73.476666, 81.567332, 78.665412, 73.78608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.09, "volume": 75417382, "typical_volume": 61583692.45, "trend": 67.647356, "fair_value": 40.059536, "relative_strength": -1.670946, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.492287, "energy": 37.566491, "activity_lines": [ 66.448666, 76.667454, 77.221396, 73.182687 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.980003, "volume": 77139171, "typical_volume": 61020421.65, "trend": 68.319318, "fair_value": 40.332957, "relative_strength": 13.424047, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.962063, "energy": 32.322195, "activity_lines": [ 66.173334, 74.595455, 77.015692, 73.397697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }