{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1148753b-3133-47e3-b058-e45f22d5d225",
    "symbol": "A1WK34",
    "name": "American Water Works Company, Inc.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 74.093,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 29.411,
    "architecture_energy": 48.587,
    "architecture_maturity": 6.285,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.55,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.97,
        "rotation_up": 63.73,
        "upward_expansion": 52.11,
        "deceleration": 19.83,
        "rotation_down": 15.69,
        "downward_expansion": 24.77
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        170.673332,
        169.100363,
        165.512929,
        166.038591
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 171.869995,
    "trend_reference": 167.096718,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.028566,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 173.66237,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010321,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.251234,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.04291,
    "excess_performance": 0.099958,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028566,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.016341,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010321,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.154848,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052512,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.272806,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04291,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.164,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 215,
      "relative_activity": 1.98982,
      "balance": 3.164,
      "dry_up": 0.61777,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029172,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.250244,
      "from_high_reference": -0.143172,
      "from_low_reference": 0.185225
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 167.096718,
      "fair_value_reference": 173.66237,
      "structural_low": 145.010483,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.011571,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.166667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.050312,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.071699,
        "worst_return": -0.082086,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.093571,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.134454,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.237005,
        "worst_return": -0.114829,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.009067,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081438,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.231724,
        "worst_return": -0.132608,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.086636,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02164,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.301804,
        "worst_return": -0.128533,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.048865,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02566,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044373,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009804,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008862,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.060398,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000505,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04119,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.007962,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.083098,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.038207,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020532,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009452,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 165.408859,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 30.9,
        "trend": 172.143304,
        "fair_value": 188.005469,
        "relative_strength": -9.482892,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.857378,
        "energy": 29.295961,
        "activity_lines": [
          165.073294,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
        "close": 165.408859,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 29.85,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
        "close": 165.408859,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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        "typical_volume": 97.45,
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        "relative_strength": -10.911341,
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        "energy": 53.725355,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
        "close": 161.04747,
        "volume": 0,
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        "energy": 68.908527,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
        "close": 156.972351,
        "volume": 102,
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        "trend": 168.235612,
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        "relative_strength": -13.112831,
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        "direction": -84.83697,
        "energy": 85.050246,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-29",
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        "energy": 97.642395,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-06",
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        "volume": 5,
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        "trend": 166.738446,
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        "relative_strength": -20.203188,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-13",
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        "volume": 0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-20",
        "close": 142.580673,
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        "energy": 93.690175,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-27",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-11-03",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-11-10",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-11-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-11-24",
        "close": 154.877411,
        "volume": 799,
        "typical_volume": 249.05,
        "trend": 159.306531,
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        "relative_strength": -18.322185,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-01",
        "close": 154.877411,
        "volume": 0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-08",
        "close": 154.877411,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-15",
        "close": 154.877411,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-22",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-29",
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        "volume": 3,
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        "trend": 156.677383,
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        "relative_strength": -21.913984,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -1.87591,
        "energy": 18.610766,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-05",
        "close": 153.009125,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 249.55,
        "trend": 156.115097,
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        "relative_strength": -20.011775,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 14.748943,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-12",
        "close": 157.282242,
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        "typical_volume": 251.1,
        "trend": 155.768995,
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        "relative_strength": -16.55536,
        "stage": 4,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-19",
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        "volume": 9,
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        "trend": 155.096817,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 156.567551,
        "volume": 26,
        "typical_volume": 29.25,
        "trend": 174.072835,
        "fair_value": 173.890402,
        "relative_strength": -29.222025,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -84.963323,
        "energy": 88.543677,
        "activity_lines": [
          162.148498,
          167.14089,
          169.508657,
          171.162827
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 145.010483,
        "volume": 18,
        "typical_volume": 30.0,
        "trend": 172.455822,
        "fair_value": 173.70032,
        "relative_strength": -32.531867,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -95.418047,
        "energy": 97.734207,
        "activity_lines": [
          155.547772,
          162.556399,
          166.954036,
          169.287837
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 159.350006,
        "volume": 15,
        "typical_volume": 30.6,
        "trend": 171.364109,
        "fair_value": 173.656937,
        "relative_strength": -22.326207,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.395042,
        "energy": 86.112724,
        "activity_lines": [
          155.723351,
          161.115807,
          165.94677,
          168.4423
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 159.350006,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 30.7,
        "trend": 170.272396,
        "fair_value": 173.613555,
        "relative_strength": -21.161715,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.73372,
        "energy": 81.171589,
        "activity_lines": [
          156.414947,
          159.987196,
          165.046258,
          167.667197
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 155.880005,
        "volume": 27,
        "typical_volume": 30.45,
        "trend": 169.872667,
        "fair_value": 173.524009,
        "relative_strength": -21.058274,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.059869,
        "energy": 67.29773,
        "activity_lines": [
          156.095906,
          158.45991,
          163.922024,
          166.738656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 162.240005,
        "volume": 20,
        "typical_volume": 31.4,
        "trend": 169.510462,
        "fair_value": 173.475049,
        "relative_strength": -14.869215,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.863302,
        "energy": 40.869986,
        "activity_lines": [
          158.432037,
          158.506555,
          163.474826,
          166.246226
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 162.240005,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 30.3,
        "trend": 169.197132,
        "fair_value": 173.440272,
        "relative_strength": -15.253779,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.988703,
        "energy": 30.251178,
        "activity_lines": [
          160.390005,
          158.806669,
          163.094172,
          165.777164
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 162.339996,
        "volume": 13,
        "typical_volume": 29.7,
        "trend": 168.712221,
        "fair_value": 173.406135,
        "relative_strength": -13.284353,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.999056,
        "energy": 24.612634,
        "activity_lines": [
          161.232669,
          159.356189,
          162.758986,
          165.334768
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 170.169998,
        "volume": 1482,
        "typical_volume": 100.8,
        "trend": 168.61702,
        "fair_value": 173.476848,
        "relative_strength": -10.989962,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.718644,
        "energy": 20.798463,
        "activity_lines": [
          164.486,
          161.415714,
          163.193951,
          165.428818
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 170.169998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 100.5,
        "trend": 168.665711,
        "fair_value": 173.512746,
        "relative_strength": -10.967451,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -3.274004,
        "energy": 22.41355,
        "activity_lines": [
          167.017999,
          163.318338,
          163.603337,
          165.529011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 166.080002,
        "volume": 258,
        "typical_volume": 113.3,
        "trend": 168.317018,
        "fair_value": 173.522426,
        "relative_strength": -14.121645,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -4.168108,
        "energy": 21.869532,
        "activity_lines": [
          167.234,
          164.363464,
          163.624022,
          165.362191
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 166.080002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 96.0,
        "trend": 167.747537,
        "fair_value": 173.532106,
        "relative_strength": -11.280034,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -1.874131,
        "energy": 22.522061,
        "activity_lines": [
          167.194,
          165.235637,
          163.655058,
          165.217867
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 169.490005,
        "volume": 7,
        "typical_volume": 95.65,
        "trend": 167.338257,
        "fair_value": 173.563645,
        "relative_strength": -8.877534,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.07349,
        "energy": 28.653767,
        "activity_lines": [
          168.034669,
          166.344729,
          164.051094,
          165.330284
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 173.509995,
        "volume": 45,
        "typical_volume": 97.35,
        "trend": 167.062977,
        "fair_value": 173.620953,
        "relative_strength": -7.999754,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.986927,
        "energy": 43.622266,
        "activity_lines": [
          169.738667,
          168.000364,
          164.863409,
          165.728461
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 171.869995,
        "volume": 215,
        "typical_volume": 108.05,
        "trend": 167.096718,
        "fair_value": 173.66237,
        "relative_strength": -5.251234,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.411472,
        "energy": 48.586599,
        "activity_lines": [
          170.673332,
          169.100363,
          165.512929,
          166.038591
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}