{ "ticker": { "uuid": "114d098c-cbdf-45f2-ac90-9e09077f7502", "symbol": "CBSUS", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.176, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.132, "architecture_energy": 27.805, "architecture_maturity": 57.012, "architecture_confidence": 75.81, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.01, "rotation_up": 17.88, "upward_expansion": 50.88, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 46.44, "downward_expansion": 28.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.8212, 12.894836, 12.864486, 12.83941 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.798, "trend_reference": 12.799911, "distance_from_trend": -0.000149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.61699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014346, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.406422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015604, "excess_performance": -0.155288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004295, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 706, "relative_activity": 0.104921, "balance": 0.788182, "dry_up": 0.455724, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007754, "annualized_volatility": 0.050332, "from_high_reference": -0.142428, "from_low_reference": 0.032153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.799911, "fair_value_reference": 12.61699, "structural_low": 12.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004223, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.005824, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.017344, "worst_return": -0.065739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.008745, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.069586, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.009649, "worst_return": -0.050058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021636, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.122813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036716, "worst_return": -0.059118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009028, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 7969, "typical_volume": 10086.5, "trend": 12.798223, "fair_value": 12.603387, "relative_strength": -11.474087, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.690832, "energy": 34.829667, "activity_lines": [ 12.944533, 12.950909, 12.878343, 12.843925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.73, "volume": 1412, "typical_volume": 10114.3, "trend": 12.799765, "fair_value": 12.61027, "relative_strength": -12.706997, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.061464, "energy": 20.864763, "activity_lines": [ 12.856133, 12.9168, 12.867857, 12.839524 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.798, "volume": 706, "typical_volume": 6728.85, "trend": 12.799911, "fair_value": 12.61699, "relative_strength": -14.406422, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.131853, "energy": 27.805, "activity_lines": [ 12.8212, 12.894836, 12.864486, 12.83941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }