{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "114e9993-fa5d-443d-a7fe-cde66254e7dc",
    "symbol": "NRAM",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI North America ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 95.261,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.497,
    "architecture_energy": 70.162,
    "architecture_maturity": 88.266,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.588,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.67,
        "rotation_up": 55.23,
        "upward_expansion": 83.0,
        "deceleration": 71.45,
        "rotation_down": 29.44,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        169.322797
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 180.419998,
    "trend_reference": 164.587001,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.096198,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 141.764598,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272673,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.249896,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.1628,
    "excess_performance": -0.008092,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.096198,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039276,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.272673,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041178,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032499,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001991,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.1628,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 6.951892,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2291,
      "relative_activity": 2.171667,
      "balance": 6.951892,
      "dry_up": 0.93322,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.015946,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.113685,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.230192
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 164.587001,
      "fair_value_reference": 141.764598,
      "structural_low": 148.110001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 37,
        "median_return": 0.014964,
        "positive_rate": 0.648649,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.648649,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003267,
        "regime_survival": 0.864865,
        "best_return": 0.062153,
        "worst_return": -0.104321,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.026517,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.091258,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.088638,
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      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": 0.027802,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "typical_volume": 2559.95,
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        "fair_value": 135.351074,
        "relative_strength": -2.465499,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "trend": 156.224533,
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        "relative_strength": -3.438416,
        "stage": 3,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 139.60174,
        "relative_strength": -4.455504,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1661.45,
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        "fair_value": 140.05234,
        "relative_strength": -3.131205,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.384659,
        "energy": 80.398168,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 175.770004,
        "volume": 829,
        "typical_volume": 1667.45,
        "trend": 162.769333,
        "fair_value": 140.476885,
        "relative_strength": -2.756912,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.209626,
        "energy": 66.61384,
        "activity_lines": [
          176.018667,
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          170.571668,
          166.760345
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 175.830002,
        "volume": 499,
        "typical_volume": 1173.75,
        "trend": 163.377334,
        "fair_value": 140.890976,
        "relative_strength": -2.475082,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.310975,
        "energy": 75.488013,
        "activity_lines": [
          176.09,
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          171.542716,
          167.602969
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 173.550003,
        "volume": 319,
        "typical_volume": 1029.05,
        "trend": 163.935334,
        "fair_value": 141.306159,
        "relative_strength": -4.267105,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.277979,
        "energy": 62.211736,
        "activity_lines": [
          175.340001,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 180.419998,
        "volume": 2291,
        "typical_volume": 1054.95,
        "trend": 164.587001,
        "fair_value": 141.764598,
        "relative_strength": -3.249896,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.496762,
        "energy": 70.161936,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}