{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11679a9e-e219-4e1d-bc02-42bc142d4b07", "symbol": "ELV", "name": "Elevance Health, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 84.07, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.415, "architecture_energy": 48.633, "architecture_maturity": 63.461, "architecture_confidence": 92.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.68, "rotation_up": 24.39, "upward_expansion": 64.2, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 44.62, "downward_expansion": 25.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 6495.337337, 6680.935033, 6605.961997, 6350.690349 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6449.0, "trend_reference": 6108.384002, "distance_from_trend": 0.055762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7627.880449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.154549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.223596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068606, "excess_performance": 0.123273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052004, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.154549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002105, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042236, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068606, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 45.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 45.0, "dry_up": 0.002151, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02651, "annualized_volatility": 0.36802, "from_high_reference": -0.10742, "from_low_reference": 0.300202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6108.384002, "fair_value_reference": 7627.880449, "structural_low": 4960.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011492, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.010851, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.190321, "worst_return": -0.085459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153356, "worst_return": -0.317166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023832, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259013, "worst_return": -0.250472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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5.242382, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.991568, "energy": 43.960818, "activity_lines": [ 6702.847363, 6829.690289, 6560.857175, 6303.803692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6449.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 929.7, "trend": 6093.213608, "fair_value": 7637.901665, "relative_strength": 4.319442, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.613258, "energy": 36.246514, "activity_lines": [ 6588.012012, 6754.026865, 6586.907205, 6327.736388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6449.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 929.7, "trend": 6108.384002, "fair_value": 7627.880449, "relative_strength": 4.223596, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.415465, "energy": 48.633249, "activity_lines": [ 6495.337337, 6680.935033, 6605.961997, 6350.690349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }