{ "ticker": { "uuid": "116dca50-07d8-40e5-aca9-d70cb78a9f17", "symbol": "BUS", "name": "Bubalus Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.954, "architecture_energy": 36.815, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.284, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.46, "rotation_up": 28.06, "upward_expansion": 11.45, "deceleration": 58.1, "rotation_down": 48.6, "downward_expansion": 75.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.075467, 0.076291, 0.0797, 0.082755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.071, "trend_reference": 0.08865, "distance_from_trend": -0.199098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.131792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.461271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.723283, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236559, "excess_performance": -0.300265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184828, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.461271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236559, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440339, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 358233, "relative_activity": 1.373284, "balance": 0.440339, "dry_up": 1.489487, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121343, "annualized_volatility": 0.615772, "from_high_reference": -0.635897, "from_low_reference": 0.183333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.08865, "fair_value_reference": 0.131792, "structural_low": 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"date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.072, "volume": 185790, "typical_volume": 419126.4, "trend": 0.100783, "fair_value": 0.135087, "relative_strength": -35.913469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.021824, "energy": 85.537833, "activity_lines": [ 0.077067, 0.081945, 0.084357, 0.089892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.075, "volume": 66330, "typical_volume": 379584.25, "trend": 0.098283, "fair_value": 0.134542, "relative_strength": -33.546707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.977715, "energy": 83.306944, "activity_lines": [ 0.0756, 0.080291, 0.083117, 0.088229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.073, "volume": 80000, "typical_volume": 358564.95, "trend": 0.095717, "fair_value": 0.133952, "relative_strength": -34.705615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.001431, "energy": 81.853287, "activity_lines": [ 0.0742, 0.078382, 0.081829, 0.086598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.093, "volume": 117946, "typical_volume": 306435.05, "trend": 0.094317, "fair_value": 0.13349, "relative_strength": -16.679549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.678434, "energy": 33.12351, "activity_lines": [ 0.080267, 0.080327, 0.082621, 0.086423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.078, "volume": 466443, "typical_volume": 258634.05, "trend": 0.09225, "fair_value": 0.132837, "relative_strength": -29.703453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.517166, "energy": 27.819941, "activity_lines": [ 0.0802, 0.079491, 0.08199, 0.08537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.071, "volume": 611560, "typical_volume": 283314.6, "trend": 0.090283, "fair_value": 0.132298, "relative_strength": -37.122287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.976181, "energy": 32.349361, "activity_lines": [ 0.0778, 0.077691, 0.080788, 0.083999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.071, "volume": 358233, "typical_volume": 260858.65, "trend": 0.08865, "fair_value": 0.131792, "relative_strength": -38.723283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.953513, "energy": 36.814824, "activity_lines": [ 0.075467, 0.076291, 0.0797, 0.082755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }