{ "ticker": { "uuid": "116e677d-4778-4dbb-9abf-1dcead520252", "symbol": "2387", "name": "Sunrex Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.291, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.012, "architecture_energy": 57.361, "architecture_maturity": 7.518, "architecture_confidence": 66.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.32, "rotation_up": 18.07, "upward_expansion": 20.08, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 68.32, "downward_expansion": 61.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.203335, 37.969091, 38.916905, 39.228662 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.400002, "trend_reference": 39.096726, "distance_from_trend": -0.068976, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.815767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.169249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.301533, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022665, "excess_performance": -0.323067, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024014, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.169249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086384, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022665, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.251844, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2101033, "relative_activity": 0.693585, "balance": 1.251844, "dry_up": 0.782688, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057164, "annualized_volatility": 0.292096, "from_high_reference": -0.170843, "from_low_reference": 0.076345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.096726, "fair_value_reference": 43.815767, "structural_low": 35.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033531, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002119, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.101289, "worst_return": 0.022177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029617, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044199, "worst_return": 0.015034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.219527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145488, "worst_return": -0.122932, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022177, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.198666, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058352, 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1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.206369, "energy": 35.893678, "activity_lines": [ 38.36, 38.939999, 39.537142, 39.554951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 36.650002, "volume": 3147020, "typical_volume": 3108349.85, "trend": 39.08349, "fair_value": 43.806423, "relative_strength": -31.594528, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.566101, "energy": 50.487336, "activity_lines": [ 37.716668, 38.424545, 39.230476, 39.40179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 2101033, "typical_volume": 3029234.95, "trend": 39.096726, "fair_value": 43.815767, "relative_strength": -30.301533, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.011886, "energy": 57.361417, "activity_lines": [ 37.203335, 37.969091, 38.916905, 39.228662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }