{ "ticker": { "uuid": "116f3366-b2e2-4485-b950-b5e096a89d8e", "symbol": "RIO", "name": "Rio Tinto ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.342, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.931, "architecture_energy": 9.233, "architecture_maturity": 20.829, "architecture_confidence": 76.472, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.88, "rotation_up": 26.97, "upward_expansion": 31.26, "deceleration": 72.26, "rotation_down": 40.75, "downward_expansion": 26.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.826667, 95.370727, 97.754238, 97.021097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 101.1, "trend_reference": 95.376208, "distance_from_trend": 0.060013, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.374515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.523175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.229451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1128, "excess_performance": -0.012825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060013, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.523175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082295, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202815, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1128, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023728, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11416773, "relative_activity": 0.881554, "balance": 1.023728, "dry_up": 1.079855, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066721, "annualized_volatility": 0.298164, "from_high_reference": -0.101972, "from_low_reference": 0.730473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.376208, "fair_value_reference": 66.374515, "structural_low": 82.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.396003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"relative_strength": 3.425299, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.47034, "energy": 42.724746, "activity_lines": [ 91.393333, 94.766, 97.388143, 96.423331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.85, "volume": 15375432, "typical_volume": 13280951.35, "trend": 94.636482, "fair_value": 66.061322, "relative_strength": 7.965198, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.335992, "energy": 31.887287, "activity_lines": [ 93.005333, 94.614909, 97.390286, 96.604095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.1, "volume": 11416773, "typical_volume": 12950736.6, "trend": 95.376208, "fair_value": 66.374515, "relative_strength": 8.229451, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.931408, "energy": 9.232978, "activity_lines": [ 95.826667, 95.370727, 97.754238, 97.021097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }