{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11719f8e-3c27-476e-b7bb-ffc99d983bc0", "symbol": "VVV", "name": "Valvoline Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.047, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.011, "architecture_energy": 19.521, "architecture_maturity": 44.759, "architecture_confidence": 75.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.64, "rotation_up": 30.19, "upward_expansion": 61.72, "deceleration": 87.12, "rotation_down": 27.53, "downward_expansion": 16.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.72, 38.250182, 37.016571, 36.351591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.34, "trend_reference": 35.655333, "distance_from_trend": -0.008844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.056282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.130543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.058353, "excess_performance": -0.183978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074571, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006986, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.040491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15690019, "relative_activity": 1.513071, "balance": 1.040491, "dry_up": 1.028569, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082414, "annualized_volatility": 0.313188, "from_high_reference": -0.144931, "from_low_reference": 0.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.655333, "fair_value_reference": 37.056282, "structural_low": 31.41, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.030846, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.031512, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.098315, "worst_return": -0.11924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070097, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.045825, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.070138, "worst_return": -0.192625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027668, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.099474, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.148851, "worst_return": -0.123133, 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10059091.1, "trend": 35.233333, "fair_value": 37.036987, "relative_strength": 2.870368, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.590799, "energy": 44.990063, "activity_lines": [ 39.264, 38.586727, 36.785762, 36.16028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.41, "volume": 8247787, "typical_volume": 9999853.1, "trend": 35.551333, "fair_value": 37.048333, "relative_strength": 0.527178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.492786, "energy": 37.941788, "activity_lines": [ 38.944, 38.741455, 37.05881, 36.365226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.34, "volume": 15690019, "typical_volume": 10369651.35, "trend": 35.655333, "fair_value": 37.056282, "relative_strength": -10.130543, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.01132, "energy": 19.521316, "activity_lines": [ 37.72, 38.250182, 37.016571, 36.351591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }