{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11762298-db7c-4dca-9d8f-4ac3b3dec793", "symbol": "2310", "name": "Sahara International Petrochemical Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.885, "architecture_energy": 86.91, "architecture_maturity": 27.541, "architecture_confidence": 87.082, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 9.5, "upward_expansion": 21.2, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 79.5, "downward_expansion": 96.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.188667, 13.593818, 14.189286, 14.496602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.01, "trend_reference": 14.771667, "distance_from_trend": -0.11926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.269649, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.415797, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.077994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103377, "excess_performance": -0.071548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047711, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.415797, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074762, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.28334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6728082, "relative_activity": 0.842217, "balance": 0.28334, "dry_up": 0.854166, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048483, "annualized_volatility": 0.277222, "from_high_reference": -0.368355, "from_low_reference": 0.027646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.771667, "fair_value_reference": 22.269649, "structural_low": 12.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.02085, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.024791, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.125184, "worst_return": -0.115909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.078448, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.19133, "worst_return": -0.207423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.110261, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.109024, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.093902, "worst_return": -0.22471, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -12.155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.370913, "energy": 43.976037, "activity_lines": [ 14.244667, 14.376727, 14.846857, 14.934774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.81, "volume": 5438014, "typical_volume": 8659059.8, "trend": 14.971333, "fair_value": 22.656057, "relative_strength": -12.444482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.611803, "energy": 42.616861, "activity_lines": [ 14.106667, 14.233273, 14.731429, 14.855935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.4, "volume": 7340976, "typical_volume": 8329328.9, "trend": 14.910333, "fair_value": 22.532277, "relative_strength": -15.203374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.172962, "energy": 70.184824, "activity_lines": [ 13.848, 14.049273, 14.577238, 14.754559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.73, "volume": 7787078, "typical_volume": 7866554.75, "trend": 14.828, "fair_value": 22.406484, "relative_strength": -17.407935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.036118, "energy": 86.35667, "activity_lines": [ 13.406, 13.777273, 14.364524, 14.613892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.01, "volume": 6728082, "typical_volume": 7988538.5, "trend": 14.771667, "fair_value": 22.269649, "relative_strength": -17.077994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.884722, "energy": 86.910089, "activity_lines": [ 13.188667, 13.593818, 14.189286, 14.496602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }