{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1179ac1f-ad52-44c2-b7c8-6eeda7f25d3f", "symbol": "000301", "name": "Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.164, "architecture_energy": 18.59, "architecture_maturity": 23.019, "architecture_confidence": 65.152, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.24, "rotation_up": 41.8, "upward_expansion": 57.45, "deceleration": 52.15, "rotation_down": 25.09, "downward_expansion": 23.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.182, 12.064, 12.117095, 12.092151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.1, "trend_reference": 12.043333, "distance_from_trend": 0.087739, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.832104, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.555583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009077, "excess_performance": -0.016477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061367, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020355, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.155556, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120509, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.210524, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166760677, "relative_activity": 1.383019, "balance": 1.210524, "dry_up": 1.301714, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085379, "annualized_volatility": 0.369653, "from_high_reference": -0.108844, "from_low_reference": 0.523256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.043333, "fair_value_reference": 9.832104, "structural_low": 10.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.032253, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.043576, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.219094, "worst_return": -0.140096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.103752, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.071237, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.076638, "worst_return": -0.243615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.105082, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.125732, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.117429, "worst_return": -0.241368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118363, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130285, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 12.007895, "volume": 105672843, "typical_volume": 107863742.15, "trend": 12.874951, "fair_value": 15.370948, "relative_strength": -14.453278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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12.060238, 12.048151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.6, "volume": 155059959, "typical_volume": 126509300.65, "trend": 11.934667, "fair_value": 9.82289, "relative_strength": 6.707018, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.988251, "energy": 9.467217, "activity_lines": [ 11.849333, 11.867273, 12.022286, 12.029849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.77, "volume": 131419382, "typical_volume": 120261590.05, "trend": 11.969667, "fair_value": 9.822632, "relative_strength": 9.695117, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.306718, "energy": 11.992318, "activity_lines": [ 11.806667, 11.839091, 12.006857, 12.019226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.1, "volume": 166760677, "typical_volume": 120577251.6, "trend": 12.043333, "fair_value": 9.832104, "relative_strength": 15.555583, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.164203, "energy": 18.589947, "activity_lines": [ 12.182, 12.064, 12.117095, 12.092151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }