{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1187b537-9da7-4419-988a-d8d4b0a86c22", "symbol": "XLF", "name": "State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.084, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.581, "architecture_energy": 88.18, "architecture_maturity": 10.272, "architecture_confidence": 71.605, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.68, "rotation_up": 82.87, "upward_expansion": 99.45, "deceleration": 39.25, "rotation_down": 9.66, "downward_expansion": 21.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 986.329993, 973.362872, 945.068502, 929.545621 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 988.789978, "trend_reference": 916.900781, "distance_from_trend": 0.078405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 856.398298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154591, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.353261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06295, "excess_performance": 0.117617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078405, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023533, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06295, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186174, "relative_activity": 2.220171, "balance": 0.39964, "dry_up": 0.613643, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019412, "annualized_volatility": 0.157257, "from_high_reference": -0.021793, "from_low_reference": 0.14962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 916.900781, "fair_value_reference": 856.398298, "structural_low": 860.101321, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.024048, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.003518, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.116067, "worst_return": -0.053337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018258, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003753, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.267465, "worst_return": -0.11542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008893, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074051, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.488384, "worst_return": -0.163764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-08-07", "close": 988.789978, "volume": 186174, "typical_volume": 83855.7, "trend": 916.900781, "fair_value": 856.398298, "relative_strength": 2.353261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.581294, "energy": 88.179748, "activity_lines": [ 986.329993, 973.362872, 945.068502, 929.545621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }