{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11888cf2-304a-411a-9ffa-24cbb3aee1dd", "symbol": "2290", "name": "Yanbu National Petrochemical Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.886, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.256, "architecture_energy": 14.173, "architecture_maturity": 22.329, "architecture_confidence": 52.608, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.12, "rotation_up": 31.44, "upward_expansion": 24.59, "deceleration": 51.28, "rotation_down": 32.19, "downward_expansion": 31.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.796, 30.599637, 31.638, 31.687908 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.9, "trend_reference": 30.914788, "distance_from_trend": -0.032825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.594312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.082662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.458583, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.168301, "excess_performance": 0.20013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.082662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.168301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.832086, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4156426, "relative_activity": 0.878918, "balance": 0.832086, "dry_up": 0.929623, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055313, "annualized_volatility": 0.402238, "from_high_reference": -0.222164, "from_low_reference": 0.245833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.914788, "fair_value_reference": 32.594312, "structural_low": 24.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.043931, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.015892, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.079245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06391, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.094308, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.010921, "worst_return": -0.113076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.135746, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.134772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143586, "worst_return": -0.210372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08458, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": 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"typical_volume": 5246708.7, "trend": 30.646648, "fair_value": 32.720658, "relative_strength": 5.988955, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.943908, "energy": 13.184232, "activity_lines": [ 31.074667, 30.920727, 32.109334, 31.740549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.700001, "volume": 3656708, "typical_volume": 4752781.35, "trend": 30.769282, "fair_value": 32.664943, "relative_strength": 3.585354, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.607847, "energy": 13.38386, "activity_lines": [ 31.106667, 30.802546, 31.908667, 31.743991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.9, "volume": 4156426, "typical_volume": 4729027.85, "trend": 30.914788, "fair_value": 32.594312, "relative_strength": -1.458583, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.256278, "energy": 14.173413, "activity_lines": [ 30.796, 30.599637, 31.638, 31.687908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }