{ "ticker": { "uuid": "118d556a-25bb-45af-9fdd-f6dc35f728eb", "symbol": "CRAP", "name": "Caisse R\u00e9gionale de Cr\u00e9dit Agricole Mutuel Alpes Provence Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 coop\u00e9rative", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.642, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.182, "architecture_energy": 53.029, "architecture_maturity": 40.785, "architecture_confidence": 78.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.29, "rotation_up": 14.23, "upward_expansion": 23.31, "deceleration": 53.37, "rotation_down": 67.97, "downward_expansion": 48.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.318666, 143.219636, 147.325676, 145.241093 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 132.0, "trend_reference": 142.289877, "distance_from_trend": -0.072316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.250102, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.539997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01445, "excess_performance": -0.067761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052013, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385825, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286246, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01445, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2054, "relative_activity": 1.525663, "balance": 0.945997, "dry_up": 0.775644, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054627, "annualized_volatility": 0.263357, "from_high_reference": -0.245628, "from_low_reference": 0.213322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.289877, "fair_value_reference": 95.250102, "structural_low": 125.812202, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007153, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005198, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.131316, "worst_return": -0.095588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012481, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047462, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.220686, "worst_return": -0.096732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.147826, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.199079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.71237, "worst_return": -0.051896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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145.511424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 141.520004, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 1485.45, "trend": 140.637799, "fair_value": 93.361753, "relative_strength": 1.642337, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.773395, "energy": 26.125686, "activity_lines": [ 147.120002, 152.599275, 149.43555, 145.612727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 140.479996, "volume": 608, "typical_volume": 1420.45, "trend": 141.145422, "fair_value": 93.832854, "relative_strength": 0.394214, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.037349, "energy": 26.219691, "activity_lines": [ 143.872, 150.055637, 149.014139, 145.602546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.5, "volume": 816, "typical_volume": 1380.55, "trend": 141.802708, "fair_value": 94.32612, "relative_strength": 1.657288, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.195062, "energy": 25.01745, "activity_lines": [ 142.998666, 148.208728, 148.838499, 145.754454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 144.199997, "volume": 699, "typical_volume": 1281.45, "trend": 142.354388, "fair_value": 94.82494, "relative_strength": 0.203547, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.074124, "energy": 24.637742, "activity_lines": [ 143.031999, 146.652727, 148.681677, 145.909118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.0, "volume": 2054, "typical_volume": 1346.3, "trend": 142.289877, "fair_value": 95.250102, "relative_strength": -10.539997, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.182128, "energy": 53.02862, "activity_lines": [ 139.318666, 143.219636, 147.325676, 145.241093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }