{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11924fce-8f2e-47de-a2da-7ae702882204", "symbol": "AGF-B", "name": "AGF Management Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.776, "architecture_energy": 94.38, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.71, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.52, "rotation_up": 87.88, "upward_expansion": 99.98, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.22, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.055333, 21.986974, 20.187402, 19.618278 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 23.879999, "trend_reference": 18.976276, "distance_from_trend": 0.258413, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.360549, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.102011, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.199921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.322756, "excess_performance": 0.202335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.258413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.102011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.416717, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.271999, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225973, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.175538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 854300, "relative_activity": 0.764827, "balance": 1.175538, "dry_up": 1.219913, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047909, "annualized_volatility": 0.45794, "from_high_reference": -0.002506, "from_low_reference": 1.116135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.976276, "fair_value_reference": 11.360549, "structural_low": 15.158358, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.014804, "positive_rate": 0.606061, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": 0.013891, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.189655, "worst_return": -0.20562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.081668, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.037116, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.37054, "worst_return": -0.1573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.137252, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.053053, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.369199, "worst_return": -0.190558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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10.945318, "relative_strength": 23.783812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.829067, "energy": 85.510098, "activity_lines": [ 20.480033, 19.345928, 18.526148, 18.419276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.889999, "volume": 2045600, "typical_volume": 1046875.0, "trend": 18.286745, "fair_value": 11.0485, "relative_strength": 28.858328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.515415, "energy": 96.351555, "activity_lines": [ 21.430824, 20.135868, 18.948452, 18.731291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 1258700, "typical_volume": 1077445.0, "trend": 18.511801, "fair_value": 11.15026, "relative_strength": 27.018338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.927252, "energy": 93.711358, "activity_lines": [ 22.064596, 20.806966, 19.350057, 19.022468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.6, "volume": 1291900, "typical_volume": 1106025.0, "trend": 18.733142, "fair_value": 11.251697, "relative_strength": 25.429856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.775662, "energy": 89.863884, "activity_lines": [ 22.451999, 21.333272, 19.71747, 19.286223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.879999, "volume": 854300, "typical_volume": 1116985.0, "trend": 18.976276, "fair_value": 11.360549, "relative_strength": 27.199921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.776104, "energy": 94.380352, "activity_lines": [ 23.055333, 21.986974, 20.187402, 19.618278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }