{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11930ec9-0792-49c8-ba13-4d8f4f72e7e6", "symbol": "GRV", "name": "Great Wall Motor Company Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.474, "architecture_energy": 32.746, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 44.107, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.39, "rotation_up": 43.2, "upward_expansion": 30.93, "deceleration": 49.87, "rotation_down": 15.31, "downward_expansion": 50.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.98462, 0.926708, 0.898499, 0.994401 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.9556, "trend_reference": 1.130461, "distance_from_trend": -0.154681, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.025589, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068242, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.820752, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.330812, "excess_performance": -0.505059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185526, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129814, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.458208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07206, "annualized_volatility": 1.131278, "from_high_reference": -0.552412, "from_low_reference": 0.555068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.130461, "fair_value_reference": 1.025589, "structural_low": 0.614507, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.03024, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.015599, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.755354, "worst_return": -0.4813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.336506, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.252599, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.776226, "worst_return": -0.503827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.313821, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.217923, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.018374, "worst_return": -0.330812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.675742, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.259098, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.968364, "worst_return": -0.375484, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.351626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13013, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02372, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107892, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002788, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09423, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.77701, 0.750875, 0.927418, 1.062374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.9638, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 1.212264, "fair_value": 1.015609, "relative_strength": -46.580449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.903309, "energy": 43.97472, "activity_lines": [ 0.850264, 0.79024, 0.915701, 1.044894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.967, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 1.191377, "fair_value": 1.018234, "relative_strength": -44.742604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.051759, "energy": 36.153363, "activity_lines": [ 0.907064, 0.826599, 0.906552, 1.02907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9965, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 1.172194, "fair_value": 1.020583, "relative_strength": -43.161248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.079486, "energy": 40.143647, "activity_lines": [ 0.957042, 0.865258, 0.902276, 1.016498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.026, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 1.151907, "fair_value": 1.023156, "relative_strength": -40.8461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.707819, "energy": 36.783731, "activity_lines": [ 0.996033, 0.905062, 0.902801, 1.007066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9556, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 1.130461, "fair_value": 1.025589, "relative_strength": -45.820752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.473893, "energy": 32.745737, "activity_lines": [ 0.98462, 0.926708, 0.898499, 0.994401 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }