{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1193320f-9aec-4a1f-a909-bd727a05a45c", "symbol": "UAL", "name": "United Airlines Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.732, "architecture_energy": 35.619, "architecture_maturity": 67.383, "architecture_confidence": 81.133, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.71, "rotation_up": 35.48, "upward_expansion": 65.15, "deceleration": 88.14, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 17.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.566667, 108.441818, 101.836, 97.104731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 111.5, "trend_reference": 93.053, "distance_from_trend": 0.198242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.009588, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.042057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150315, "excess_performance": -0.023932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.198242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061276, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275605, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000421, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132282, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.906892, "dry_up": 0.22479, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079407, "annualized_volatility": 0.525912, "from_high_reference": -0.074689, "from_low_reference": 0.514946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.053, "fair_value_reference": 85.009588, "structural_low": 73.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.217172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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"energy": 86.17596, "activity_lines": [ 112.833333, 105.909091, 96.343095, 93.500194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.5, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 641.15, "trend": 92.101333, "fair_value": 84.28117, "relative_strength": -4.799973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.924577, "energy": 75.977766, "activity_lines": [ 109.833333, 106.216364, 97.403571, 94.11686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 440.05, "trend": 92.386333, "fair_value": 84.509789, "relative_strength": -1.939258, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.442218, "energy": 50.318757, "activity_lines": [ 108.166667, 107.045455, 98.839809, 95.013548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 332.0, "trend": 92.700333, "fair_value": 84.733646, "relative_strength": -1.980809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.462586, "energy": 35.202066, "activity_lines": [ 106.466667, 107.42, 100.147667, 95.891849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 279.15, "trend": 93.053, "fair_value": 85.009588, "relative_strength": 0.042057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.731724, "energy": 35.61925, "activity_lines": [ 107.566667, 108.441818, 101.836, 97.104731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }