{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11965c8c-0acf-480e-98b8-096fab36108d", "symbol": "002472", "name": "Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.201, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.505, "architecture_energy": 29.358, "architecture_maturity": 22.823, "architecture_confidence": 67.654, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.99, "rotation_up": 13.29, "upward_expansion": 12.75, "deceleration": 49.26, "rotation_down": 59.21, "downward_expansion": 67.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.353999, 39.698162, 40.280113, 40.186685 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.279999, "trend_reference": 40.716616, "distance_from_trend": -0.035283, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.121418, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.453005, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054178, "excess_performance": -0.061577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035283, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054178, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131761977, "relative_activity": 1.104001, "balance": 0.904946, "dry_up": 1.315519, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131771, "annualized_volatility": 0.604903, "from_high_reference": -0.262744, "from_low_reference": 0.184481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.716616, "fair_value_reference": 32.121418, "structural_low": 34.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014162, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.096827, "worst_return": -0.17783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00054, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039161, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.17905, "worst_return": -0.235195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074258, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267201, "worst_return": -0.194323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011836, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.266341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18141, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 31.999081, "relative_strength": -7.678012, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.619584, "energy": 5.685355, "activity_lines": [ 41.384446, 41.574443, 40.924377, 40.864331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.360001, "volume": 139418983, "typical_volume": 113144689.85, "trend": 41.186616, "fair_value": 32.015214, "relative_strength": -13.76272, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.024571, "energy": 21.74859, "activity_lines": [ 39.269249, 40.403198, 40.476289, 40.475345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.419998, "volume": 125178349, "typical_volume": 115761785.9, "trend": 40.987616, "fair_value": 32.059727, "relative_strength": -4.789536, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.201585, "energy": 26.266604, "activity_lines": [ 38.717999, 39.918135, 40.337773, 40.296854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.279999, "volume": 131761977, "typical_volume": 119349455.15, "trend": 40.716616, "fair_value": 32.121418, "relative_strength": -7.453005, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.504992, "energy": 29.35841, "activity_lines": [ 38.353999, 39.698162, 40.280113, 40.186685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }