{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1197a3f4-d33c-48f2-a5e5-b930ad8290ea", "symbol": "NCC", "name": "NCC Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.344, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.929, "architecture_energy": 65.264, "architecture_maturity": 9.785, "architecture_confidence": 74.023, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.33, "rotation_up": 70.93, "upward_expansion": 90.1, "deceleration": 42.26, "rotation_down": 10.48, "downward_expansion": 14.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 141.706667, 137.956364, 136.022857, 133.683542 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 142.0, "trend_reference": 132.424699, "distance_from_trend": 0.072308, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 137.386984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.052588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076015, "excess_performance": 0.02478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072308, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.135694, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8603565, "relative_activity": 1.198237, "balance": 2.135694, "dry_up": 1.237684, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058378, "annualized_volatility": 0.323059, "from_high_reference": -0.121077, "from_low_reference": 0.324627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 132.424699, "fair_value_reference": 137.386984, "structural_low": 107.199997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.007461, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.154529, "worst_return": -0.218045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02096, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.02871, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.164251, "worst_return": -0.170693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019021, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.146968, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.295008, "worst_return": -0.280105, "sufficient": true }, 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"direction": 29.480152, "energy": 13.733135, "activity_lines": [ 134.946667, 134.858182, 132.722707, 131.779509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.0, "volume": 6320776, "typical_volume": 7604383.6, "trend": 132.115848, "fair_value": 136.802967, "relative_strength": -3.750253, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.898714, "energy": 49.826302, "activity_lines": [ 138.693333, 136.127273, 133.975238, 132.486946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.0, "volume": 13828535, "typical_volume": 7786551.45, "trend": 132.33692, "fair_value": 137.095292, "relative_strength": -5.799098, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.373023, "energy": 57.555513, "activity_lines": [ 140.626667, 136.938182, 134.985715, 133.060117 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.0, "volume": 8603565, "typical_volume": 7180187.05, "trend": 132.424699, "fair_value": 137.386984, "relative_strength": -5.052588, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.92904, "energy": 65.264449, "activity_lines": [ 141.706667, 137.956364, 136.022857, 133.683542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }