{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11990059-d3bb-41c2-b2de-d65f32985b76", "symbol": "4020", "name": "Saudi Real Estate Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.862, "architecture_energy": 43.496, "architecture_maturity": 44.12, "architecture_confidence": 63.629, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.46, "rotation_up": 50.13, "upward_expansion": 73.95, "deceleration": 70.96, "rotation_down": 20.72, "downward_expansion": 5.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.466667, 16.359091, 15.979857, 15.445613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.08, "trend_reference": 14.804667, "distance_from_trend": 0.086144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.540897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.002445, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.160173, "excess_performance": 0.192003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086144, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069846, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.100024, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.596039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3768042, "relative_activity": 0.90369, "balance": 1.596039, "dry_up": 1.191575, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065538, "annualized_volatility": 0.34591, "from_high_reference": -0.177914, "from_low_reference": 0.307317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.804667, "fair_value_reference": 18.540897, "structural_low": 12.34, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.00062, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.001114, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.14359, "worst_return": -0.10316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001475, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.001903, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.318875, "worst_return": -0.1848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.117994, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.050397, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.370457, "worst_return": -0.296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047012, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000807, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", 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"fair_value": 18.488461, "relative_strength": 22.107043, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.798515, "energy": 55.743924, "activity_lines": [ 16.423333, 16.266, 15.604857, 15.084408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.280001, "volume": 2370326, "typical_volume": 4122311.15, "trend": 14.582333, "fair_value": 18.509359, "relative_strength": 17.92052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.758512, "energy": 55.937393, "activity_lines": [ 16.768, 16.461636, 15.828476, 15.267935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.94, "volume": 1602952, "typical_volume": 4023185.35, "trend": 14.683667, "fair_value": 18.524872, "relative_strength": 11.241374, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.506182, "energy": 44.362465, "activity_lines": [ 16.590667, 16.395818, 15.904286, 15.355527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.08, "volume": 3768042, "typical_volume": 4169617.7, "trend": 14.804667, "fair_value": 18.540897, "relative_strength": 10.002445, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.862385, "energy": 43.495593, "activity_lines": [ 16.466667, 16.359091, 15.979857, 15.445613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }