{ "ticker": { "uuid": "119f8c8c-1893-44c1-b4bb-4186c04bf827", "symbol": "337150", "name": "Samsung Kodex 200Extop ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.725, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.542, "architecture_energy": 46.737, "architecture_maturity": 7.844, "architecture_confidence": 77.188, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.95, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 23.59, "deceleration": 51.92, "rotation_down": 65.38, "downward_expansion": 50.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 24664.021354, 25757.555717, 26994.581585, 26773.574429 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24900.0, "trend_reference": 26156.987956, "distance_from_trend": -0.048056, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15430.200458, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.613719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.009531, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084215, "excess_performance": -0.145614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048056, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.613719, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.502249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065279, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084215, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.795742, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3252, "relative_activity": 0.652612, "balance": 0.795742, "dry_up": 0.809595, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099399, "annualized_volatility": 0.378256, "from_high_reference": -0.202434, "from_low_reference": 0.680787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26156.987956, "fair_value_reference": 15430.200458, "structural_low": 20824.174512, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024159, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007391, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.00817, "worst_return": -0.02537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.016108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066319, "worst_return": -0.034103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.014632, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141165, "worst_return": -0.1119, "sufficient": false }, 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25896.242578, "fair_value": 15259.550055, "relative_strength": -16.17542, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.202889, "energy": 33.683966, "activity_lines": [ 25703.740234, 26994.367365, 27536.199451, 26992.625748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23625.0, "volume": 4933, "typical_volume": 5207.2, "trend": 26024.052865, "fair_value": 15340.849735, "relative_strength": -18.373049, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.44975, "energy": 39.980248, "activity_lines": [ 24878.752214, 26205.734269, 27203.386775, 26846.093968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24900.0, "volume": 3252, "typical_volume": 4983.05, "trend": 26156.987956, "fair_value": 15430.200458, "relative_strength": -9.009531, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.541574, "energy": 46.736956, "activity_lines": [ 24664.021354, 25757.555717, 26994.581585, 26773.574429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }