{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11a0cdd4-4e86-4c64-9b34-c50df4521256", "symbol": "AGL", "name": "Accordant Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.919, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.806, "architecture_energy": 42.958, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.707, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.46, "rotation_up": 46.53, "upward_expansion": 35.33, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 14.43, "downward_expansion": 55.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.165467, 0.159273, 0.152476, 0.171699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.172, "trend_reference": 0.204633, "distance_from_trend": -0.159472, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.498457, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.654935, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.432405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.445161, "excess_performance": -0.473435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159472, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.654935, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120078, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194352, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.445161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50148, "relative_activity": 1.093012, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.380134, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017889, "annualized_volatility": 1.100189, "from_high_reference": -0.478788, "from_low_reference": 0.323077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.204633, "fair_value_reference": 0.498457, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.031571, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.392157, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.159254, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.120967, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.27907, "worst_return": -0.404255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.272127, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.272862, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.08, "worst_return": -0.479167, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -51.575146, "energy": 80.084933, "activity_lines": [ 0.153667, 0.149436, 0.15289, 0.180348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.162, "volume": 16700, "typical_volume": 44045.55, "trend": 0.211367, "fair_value": 0.511061, "relative_strength": -35.45635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.003954, "energy": 70.722247, "activity_lines": [ 0.156933, 0.152291, 0.151657, 0.176942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.166, "volume": 1624, "typical_volume": 43374.0, "trend": 0.2079, "fair_value": 0.504833, "relative_strength": -32.922169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.455662, "energy": 32.519516, "activity_lines": [ 0.160733, 0.155473, 0.151462, 0.174015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.172, "volume": 50148, "typical_volume": 45880.55, "trend": 0.204633, "fair_value": 0.498457, "relative_strength": -30.432405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.806278, "energy": 42.958013, "activity_lines": [ 0.165467, 0.159273, 0.152476, 0.171699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }