{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11a2be84-5bf4-43bf-b7b6-725bf1821fe7", "symbol": "4300", "name": "Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.089, "architecture_energy": 44.27, "architecture_maturity": 5.712, "architecture_confidence": 74.765, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.19, "rotation_up": 65.15, "upward_expansion": 52.41, "deceleration": 17.6, "rotation_down": 16.44, "downward_expansion": 22.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.803333, 18.515091, 18.091715, 18.116624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.959999, "trend_reference": 18.119334, "distance_from_trend": 0.046396, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.544551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.545307, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046358, "excess_performance": 0.078187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046396, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063296, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085453, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109051, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046358, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.020127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3901035, "relative_activity": 1.061909, "balance": 1.020127, "dry_up": 0.80278, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049416, "annualized_volatility": 0.240442, "from_high_reference": -0.095851, "from_low_reference": 0.300411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.119334, "fair_value_reference": 16.544551, "structural_low": 16.780001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009597, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.003225, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.098748, "worst_return": -0.034115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049027, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207143, "worst_return": -0.031969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.212796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.14672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257143, "worst_return": 0.117083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130518, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.246173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314286, "worst_return": 0.006954, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.230303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042188, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 17.360001, "volume": 32324969, "typical_volume": 5560892.6, "trend": 14.718, "fair_value": 11.403526, "relative_strength": 17.834655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.239969, "energy": 47.913153, "activity_lines": [ 18.348001, 17.97291, 17.83381, 17.933807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 3455365, "typical_volume": 3718048.8, "trend": 17.914334, "fair_value": 16.517051, "relative_strength": 10.343123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.940831, "energy": 62.977552, "activity_lines": [ 18.707334, 18.250546, 17.954048, 18.024043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.389999, "volume": 2109427, "typical_volume": 3561783.45, "trend": 18.000667, "fair_value": 16.529808, "relative_strength": 7.82134, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.813767, "energy": 49.641775, "activity_lines": [ 18.688667, 18.345637, 17.994858, 18.054732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.959999, "volume": 3901035, "typical_volume": 3673605.8, "trend": 18.119334, "fair_value": 16.544551, "relative_strength": 8.545307, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.08889, "energy": 44.269709, "activity_lines": [ 18.803333, 18.515091, 18.091715, 18.116624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }