{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11a88b24-40f2-4bc3-8d84-8e336409e0c8", "symbol": "IBTH", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2027 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.587, "architecture_energy": 66.752, "architecture_maturity": 16.343, "architecture_confidence": 67.404, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.58, "rotation_up": 66.18, "upward_expansion": 83.82, "deceleration": 49.17, "rotation_down": 12.98, "downward_expansion": 12.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.301412, 22.288892, 22.27626, 22.264587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.34, "trend_reference": 22.244563, "distance_from_trend": 0.00429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.169408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.879647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006007, "excess_performance": -0.181447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005946, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040608, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.532003, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2421246, "relative_activity": 1.155741, "balance": 1.532003, "dry_up": 1.031968, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001737, "annualized_volatility": 0.009551, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.028804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.244563, "fair_value_reference": 21.169408, "structural_low": 22.161382, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.001812, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.007904, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.013981, "worst_return": -0.015274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00635, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.074436, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.037642, "worst_return": -0.0135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013878, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.103856, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.030934, "worst_return": -0.017577, 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"direction": 36.715204, "energy": 17.751339, "activity_lines": [ 22.27124, 22.272439, 22.264546, 22.253924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.295078, "volume": 1980453, "typical_volume": 2075996.1, "trend": 22.237625, "fair_value": 21.152473, "relative_strength": -7.934774, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.170444, "energy": 32.716247, "activity_lines": [ 22.278464, 22.277117, 22.268452, 22.257982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.34, "volume": 2421246, "typical_volume": 2094973.3, "trend": 22.244563, "fair_value": 21.169408, "relative_strength": -11.879647, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.587411, "energy": 66.75228, "activity_lines": [ 22.301412, 22.288892, 22.27626, 22.264587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }