{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11acebc2-782a-4de6-930b-5f7543af5197", "symbol": "PRISMA", "name": "Prisma Properties AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.936, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.301, "architecture_energy": 9.127, "architecture_maturity": 13.554, "architecture_confidence": 73.638, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.14, "rotation_up": 42.35, "upward_expansion": 35.7, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 24.11, "downward_expansion": 17.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.746666, 24.512727, 24.607857, 24.577742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.5, "trend_reference": 24.626667, "distance_from_trend": -0.005143, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.06625, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02259, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.057974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016064, "excess_performance": -0.077559, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005143, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02259, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03762, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978408, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 425392, "relative_activity": 0.843257, "balance": 0.978408, "dry_up": 0.493455, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050549, "annualized_volatility": 0.205815, "from_high_reference": -0.064886, "from_low_reference": 0.081678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.626667, "fair_value_reference": 25.06625, "structural_low": 22.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.02549, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.05098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.039216, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116859, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.039216, "worst_return": -0.039216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001969, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045817, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043573, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024691, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031621, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 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"activity_lines": [ 24.353333, 24.410909, 24.539524, 24.566882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.4, "volume": 207193, "typical_volume": 503500.35, "trend": 24.665, "fair_value": 25.069273, "relative_strength": -10.190608, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.697463, "energy": 14.042648, "activity_lines": [ 24.413333, 24.372727, 24.532143, 24.547419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 197988, "typical_volume": 496734.9, "trend": 24.665, "fair_value": 25.071351, "relative_strength": -7.825999, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.793418, "energy": 13.712571, "activity_lines": [ 24.766666, 24.516363, 24.609047, 24.588387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.5, "volume": 425392, "typical_volume": 504463.1, "trend": 24.626667, "fair_value": 25.06625, "relative_strength": -12.057974, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.300883, "energy": 9.126595, "activity_lines": [ 24.746666, 24.512727, 24.607857, 24.577742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }