{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11b586a8-7db4-4133-8ace-b61c50b7c6c4", "symbol": "261270", "name": "KODEX USD Futures", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.24, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.157, "architecture_energy": 72.634, "architecture_maturity": 5.58, "architecture_confidence": 70.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.46, "rotation_up": 76.97, "upward_expansion": 56.89, "deceleration": 18.17, "rotation_down": 14.02, "downward_expansion": 29.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 7729.333333, 7575.727273, 7501.833333, 7507.064516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7875.0, "trend_reference": 7537.666667, "distance_from_trend": 0.044753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8065.737179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023648, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.14129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.03211, "excess_performance": -0.197718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023648, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296506, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03211, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.561172, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208024, "relative_activity": 0.430701, "balance": 1.561172, "dry_up": 0.935768, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01851, "annualized_volatility": 0.092186, "from_high_reference": -0.036108, "from_low_reference": 0.09375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7537.666667, "fair_value_reference": 8065.737179, "structural_low": 7200.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011934, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.012829, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.033426, "worst_return": -0.050058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020725, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.020017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004334, "worst_return": -0.057963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.04511, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.067888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003995, "worst_return": -0.087161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }