{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11b9b7cb-f661-48e2-92f8-209e6ef5bf42", "symbol": "NER", "name": "North East Rubber Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.41, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.88, "architecture_energy": 34.662, "architecture_maturity": 7.454, "architecture_confidence": 79.598, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.16, "rotation_up": 67.78, "upward_expansion": 43.02, "deceleration": 29.66, "rotation_down": 14.3, "downward_expansion": 15.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.536, 4.491273, 4.475745, 4.494154 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.6, "trend_reference": 4.517869, "distance_from_trend": 0.018179, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.254785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081136, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.348279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028952, "excess_performance": -0.163373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018179, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032924, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028952, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.970206, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37348800, "relative_activity": 1.294536, "balance": 4.970206, "dry_up": 1.104912, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019398, "annualized_volatility": 0.17763, "from_high_reference": -0.10062, "from_low_reference": 0.190356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.517869, "fair_value_reference": 4.254785, "structural_low": 4.224309, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00788, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.08297, "worst_return": -0.105691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.04315, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008276, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.282895, "worst_return": -0.092308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056383, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.062145, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.189024, "worst_return": -0.118999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.088985, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.012146, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.162693, "worst_return": -0.206361, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008265, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 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4.406182, 4.462961, 4.487079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.46, "volume": 32186000, "typical_volume": 40621890.0, "trend": 4.48844, "fair_value": 4.234388, "relative_strength": -12.771595, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.314334, "energy": 30.250517, "activity_lines": [ 4.417333, 4.412727, 4.458585, 4.486077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.54, "volume": 54715400, "typical_volume": 36333435.0, "trend": 4.500226, "fair_value": 4.239934, "relative_strength": -11.850008, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.937274, "energy": 12.076566, "activity_lines": [ 4.46, 4.437818, 4.46296, 4.489403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.5, "volume": 26698300, "typical_volume": 32126500.0, "trend": 4.508785, "fair_value": 4.244705, "relative_strength": -12.594404, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.703959, "energy": 18.510154, "activity_lines": [ 4.481333, 4.451636, 4.464097, 4.489389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.5, "volume": 8749200, "typical_volume": 29791300.0, "trend": 4.517343, "fair_value": 4.249477, "relative_strength": -11.248874, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.18879, "energy": 19.561192, "activity_lines": [ 4.497333, 4.463273, 4.465274, 4.488822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6, "volume": 37348800, "typical_volume": 28851110.0, "trend": 4.517869, "fair_value": 4.254785, "relative_strength": -8.348279, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.880366, "energy": 34.662042, "activity_lines": [ 4.536, 4.491273, 4.475745, 4.494154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }