{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "11bcaf65-6588-447d-904f-9a2fcc01b0e3",
    "symbol": "MUR",
    "name": "Murphy Oil Corporation",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -13.485,
    "architecture_energy": 13.956,
    "architecture_maturity": 30.546,
    "architecture_confidence": 47.597,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 51.01,
        "rotation_up": 47.0,
        "upward_expansion": 33.5,
        "deceleration": 43.69,
        "rotation_down": 28.29,
        "downward_expansion": 24.5
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        36.671333,
        36.006727,
        36.633565,
        36.711889
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 33.37,
    "trend_reference": 36.076342,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.075017,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 32.625103,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022832,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.882999,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.059721,
    "excess_performance": -0.065904,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075017,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050582,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022832,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.105155,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08883,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.209399,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059721,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.609701,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11862511,
      "relative_activity": 1.293021,
      "balance": 1.609701,
      "dry_up": 0.941624,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.115133,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.500341,
      "from_high_reference": -0.223378,
      "from_low_reference": 0.573772
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 36.076342,
      "fair_value_reference": 32.625103,
      "structural_low": 30.030096,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.010909,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022528,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.353142,
        "worst_return": -0.137387,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.050818,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012702,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.328656,
        "worst_return": -0.179353,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.033339,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030285,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.393846,
        "worst_return": -0.248686,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.186993,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.08359,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.579138,
        "worst_return": -0.198772,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.180305,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.016193,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002039,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.110956,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.054417,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.070293,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.327815,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.141946,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.146255,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.061962,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.181784,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": 0.154074,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": -0.160292,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 9.965627,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 35.256518,
        "fair_value": 32.660192,
        "relative_strength": -7.640465,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 10547218.4,
        "trend": 35.290683,
        "fair_value": 32.652741,
        "relative_strength": -3.688741,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.281584,
        "energy": 43.519119,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 36.83,
        "volume": 8580491,
        "typical_volume": 10525398.55,
        "trend": 35.486028,
        "fair_value": 32.652407,
        "relative_strength": 6.22804,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -14.320505,
        "energy": 34.216707,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.554667,
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          36.674399,
          36.403513
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 38.95,
        "volume": 7163553,
        "typical_volume": 10231050.05,
        "trend": 35.765768,
        "fair_value": 32.659321,
        "relative_strength": 12.400169,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.414066,
        "energy": 17.06169,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.113333,
          35.91,
          36.832913,
          36.626995
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 39.74,
        "volume": 6948246,
        "typical_volume": 9642002.8,
        "trend": 36.028366,
        "fair_value": 32.664614,
        "relative_strength": 12.679628,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.817439,
        "energy": 26.807987,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.624667,
          36.553273,
          37.0443,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 33.37,
        "volume": 11862511,
        "typical_volume": 9174259.35,
        "trend": 36.076342,
        "fair_value": 32.625103,
        "relative_strength": -8.882999,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.484511,
        "energy": 13.955538,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.671333,
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          36.711889
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}