{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11c518bf-84b3-4a1c-b7cb-d979950ee30b", "symbol": "TIGER", "name": "Thai Enger Holding Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.139, "architecture_energy": 32.306, "architecture_maturity": 64.173, "architecture_confidence": 74.956, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.66, "rotation_up": 34.32, "upward_expansion": 61.52, "deceleration": 71.0, "rotation_down": 24.89, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.512, 0.519818, 0.443476, 0.395527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.5, "trend_reference": 0.342333, "distance_from_trend": 0.460565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.613654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.065906, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.083333, "excess_performance": 0.891008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.460565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20117, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.40565, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.240659, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.56045, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.083333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.866884, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1702600, "relative_activity": 0.479251, "balance": 1.866884, "dry_up": 1.40874, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.238462, "annualized_volatility": 1.498505, "from_high_reference": -0.494949, "from_low_reference": 1.380952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.342333, "fair_value_reference": 0.613654, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052773, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.044779, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.096774, "worst_return": -0.101449, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.106544, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.140228, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.072464, "worst_return": -0.140625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.202899, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.270891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.202899, "worst_return": -0.202899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2022-10-21", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146226, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.637838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.313953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.289855, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.204082, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.35, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.17, "volume": 81900, "typical_volume": 246640.0, "trend": 1.436, "fair_value": 1.963234, "relative_strength": -26.21671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.093543, "energy": 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38.076798, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.314537, "energy": 83.529977, "activity_lines": [ 0.554667, 0.464545, 0.382238, 0.347398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.53, "volume": 15387400, "typical_volume": 3350685.0, "trend": 0.322, "fair_value": 0.627821, "relative_strength": 29.366479, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.636243, "energy": 71.503378, "activity_lines": [ 0.555333, 0.488182, 0.401143, 0.361161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.52, "volume": 2067400, "typical_volume": 3434585.0, "trend": 0.33, "fair_value": 0.623077, "relative_strength": 26.605325, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.918228, "energy": 49.041416, "activity_lines": [ 0.534667, 0.505455, 0.41781, 0.373935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5, "volume": 861500, "typical_volume": 3473835.0, "trend": 0.335333, "fair_value": 0.618333, "relative_strength": 23.306635, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.442951, "energy": 42.569076, "activity_lines": [ 0.519333, 0.514545, 0.431238, 0.384903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5, "volume": 1702600, "typical_volume": 3552625.0, "trend": 0.342333, "fair_value": 0.613654, "relative_strength": 24.065906, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.138968, "energy": 32.30601, "activity_lines": [ 0.512, 0.519818, 0.443476, 0.395527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }