{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11c85e00-7203-4f17-b6f0-dcb08a89f2f4", "symbol": "0301", "name": "SANVO Fine Chemicals Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.337, "architecture_energy": 68.274, "architecture_maturity": 68.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.753, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 76.42, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.81, "rotation_down": 12.8, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.793333, 6.253727, 4.798881, 3.952269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.68, "trend_reference": 2.969833, "distance_from_trend": 1.249284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.520865, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.392236, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 186.691546, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 4.138462, "excess_performance": 4.153753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 1.249284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.895638, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.392236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.899731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.866915, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.581135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 4.138462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 21.439148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1697200, "relative_activity": 0.514285, "balance": 21.439148, "dry_up": 1.849901, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118494, "annualized_volatility": 0.841136, "from_high_reference": -0.097297, "from_low_reference": 4.911504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.969833, "fair_value_reference": 1.520865, "structural_low": 1.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.005393, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.645244, "worst_return": -0.079812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029082, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.089252, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.979866, "worst_return": -0.058394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03301, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.001734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108527, "worst_return": -0.126761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.481481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.243478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03876, 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3.701398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 6.68, "volume": 1697200, "typical_volume": 3300112.75, "trend": 2.969833, "fair_value": 1.520865, "relative_strength": 186.691546, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.337349, "energy": 68.273959, "activity_lines": [ 6.793333, 6.253727, 4.798881, 3.952269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }