{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11c874c0-3597-41f1-a242-c710d46f6429", "symbol": "MME", "name": "MoneyMe Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.302, "architecture_energy": 47.798, "architecture_maturity": 54.846, "architecture_confidence": 90.027, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.3, "rotation_up": 19.6, "upward_expansion": 6.52, "deceleration": 47.37, "rotation_down": 63.13, "downward_expansion": 84.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.079533, 0.080655, 0.081786, 0.084196 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.079, "trend_reference": 0.090433, "distance_from_trend": -0.126428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.106715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259709, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.005862, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.21, "excess_performance": -0.273706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259709, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030558, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860386, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5441181, "relative_activity": 2.032553, "balance": 0.860386, "dry_up": 1.949043, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058909, "annualized_volatility": 0.367416, "from_high_reference": -0.435714, "from_low_reference": 0.053333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.090433, "fair_value_reference": 0.106715, "structural_low": 0.075, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.072157, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.439716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.261269, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.246512, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.25878, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.285714, "worst_return": -0.740741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.514889, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.544098, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.785714, "worst_return": -0.859008, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.28866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.366667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.082, "volume": 3313865, "typical_volume": 2200303.4, "trend": 0.09395, "fair_value": 0.106535, "relative_strength": -21.823046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.299045, "energy": 35.807479, "activity_lines": [ 0.0822, 0.082491, 0.082981, 0.086859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 7156641, "typical_volume": 2440987.5, "trend": 0.092783, "fair_value": 0.106587, "relative_strength": -22.676458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.998858, "energy": 45.042088, "activity_lines": [ 0.081333, 0.082, 0.082605, 0.085959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.078, "volume": 4958806, "typical_volume": 2516831.75, "trend": 0.09155, "fair_value": 0.106657, "relative_strength": -25.489166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.237603, "energy": 47.454319, "activity_lines": [ 0.080067, 0.081182, 0.082124, 0.085005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.079, "volume": 5441181, "typical_volume": 2677018.5, "trend": 0.090433, "fair_value": 0.106715, "relative_strength": -26.005862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.302305, "energy": 47.798231, "activity_lines": [ 0.079533, 0.080655, 0.081786, 0.084196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }