{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11cec5bb-259e-4bd8-a5af-cc27be9405c3", "symbol": "SWICHA", "name": "UBS MSCI Switzerland ETF CHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.762, "architecture_energy": 70.943, "architecture_maturity": 46.031, "architecture_confidence": 83.898, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 67.38, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 58.71, "rotation_down": 23.4, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.224333, 25.041182, 24.435748, 23.975491 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.559999, "trend_reference": 23.496009, "distance_from_trend": 0.087844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.587306, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241542, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.850032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113261, "excess_performance": 0.030377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087844, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039514, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0185, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.148951, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79526, "relative_activity": 0.447927, "balance": 3.148951, "dry_up": 1.759008, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018824, "annualized_volatility": 0.153312, "from_high_reference": -0.004673, "from_low_reference": 0.294517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.496009, "fair_value_reference": 20.587306, "structural_low": 20.80173, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.007278, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": 1.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.078578, "worst_return": -0.100045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0049, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.001279, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.110821, "worst_return": -0.04326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058652, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.017511, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.099217, "worst_return": -0.121802, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 72.844841, "energy": 89.760589, "activity_lines": [ 25.011667, 24.606455, 23.946598, 23.608291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.025, "volume": 344512, "typical_volume": 198549.2, "trend": 23.3273, "fair_value": 20.50007, "relative_strength": 1.310325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.953284, "energy": 86.815231, "activity_lines": [ 25.059334, 24.746637, 24.103592, 23.723015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.09, "volume": 217805, "typical_volume": 187983.2, "trend": 23.409329, "fair_value": 20.540921, "relative_strength": 1.406759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.024432, "energy": 68.43473, "activity_lines": [ 25.070667, 24.864455, 24.254099, 23.836738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.559999, "volume": 79526, "typical_volume": 177542.35, "trend": 23.496009, "fair_value": 20.587306, "relative_strength": 1.850032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.761623, "energy": 70.943146, "activity_lines": [ 25.224333, 25.041182, 24.435748, 23.975491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }