{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11d45e09-d812-4d00-a816-766d9986a24c", "symbol": "MODU", "name": "iShares Moderate Portfolio UCITS ETF USD Hedged (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.624, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.447, "architecture_energy": 65.617, "architecture_maturity": 88.357, "architecture_confidence": 55.761, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.03, "rotation_up": 52.22, "upward_expansion": 82.58, "deceleration": 71.43, "rotation_down": 29.45, "downward_expansion": 11.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.6474, 6.6404, 6.586534, 6.516046 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.722, "trend_reference": 6.431383, "distance_from_trend": 0.045187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.676588, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184162, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.477533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073682, "excess_performance": -0.042981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045187, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184162, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007343, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3925, "relative_activity": 0.359424, "balance": 0.320295, "dry_up": 2.495845, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009201, "annualized_volatility": 0.074352, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.147001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.431383, "fair_value_reference": 5.676588, "structural_low": 6.113, "invalidation": "A 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73.922836, "energy": 68.535917, "activity_lines": [ 6.635067, 6.600349, 6.496447, 6.434573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.646, "volume": 24700, "typical_volume": 6202.9, "trend": 6.372213, "fair_value": 5.631238, "relative_strength": -3.713214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.499188, "energy": 71.727985, "activity_lines": [ 6.6426, 6.615964, 6.518039, 6.453292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.615, "volume": 66909, "typical_volume": 9468.35, "trend": 6.387497, "fair_value": 5.642431, "relative_strength": -4.751356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.553653, "energy": 64.509553, "activity_lines": [ 6.638267, 6.621109, 6.535053, 6.468956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.631, "volume": 21106, "typical_volume": 10482.95, "trend": 6.402567, "fair_value": 5.653435, "relative_strength": -4.241883, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.17166, "energy": 63.566478, "activity_lines": [ 6.6334, 6.627182, 6.552349, 6.484666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.583, "volume": 17081, "typical_volume": 10944.35, "trend": 6.416037, "fair_value": 5.664545, "relative_strength": -5.557988, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.478977, "energy": 51.484422, "activity_lines": [ 6.615333, 6.622127, 6.563551, 6.496306 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.722, "volume": 3925, "typical_volume": 10920.25, "trend": 6.431383, "fair_value": 5.676588, "relative_strength": -4.477533, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.446966, "energy": 65.616813, "activity_lines": [ 6.6474, 6.6404, 6.586534, 6.516046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }