{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11d7a164-dfbd-4bdb-9380-941e8691eda8", "symbol": "AVDV", "name": "AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST AVANTIS INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP VAL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.65, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.853, "architecture_energy": 27.304, "architecture_maturity": 13.908, "architecture_confidence": 55.255, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.79, "rotation_up": 42.03, "upward_expansion": 57.82, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 20.34, "downward_expansion": 14.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.892667, 105.25891, 105.395743, 104.623485 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 109.63, "trend_reference": 103.654215, "distance_from_trend": 0.057651, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.604251, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.489452, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.138288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070324, "excess_performance": -0.055301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049556, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.489452, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011383, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070324, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.311208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5957028, "relative_activity": 1.489077, "balance": 1.311208, "dry_up": 1.060121, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031785, "annualized_volatility": 0.205433, "from_high_reference": -0.000638, "from_low_reference": 0.362866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.654215, "fair_value_reference": 73.604251, "structural_low": 93.675214, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032613, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.000904, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.061938, "worst_return": -0.069043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044819, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.015386, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.096072, "worst_return": -0.047224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042513, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163767, "worst_return": -0.029154, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.054867, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04311, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007626, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058549, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04505, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.553979, "energy": 13.485577, "activity_lines": [ 103.738667, 104.535626, 104.753929, 104.09083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.64, "volume": 3939707, "typical_volume": 3933320.2, "trend": 103.193311, "fair_value": 73.244309, "relative_strength": 0.108711, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.058209, "energy": 10.806462, "activity_lines": [ 104.012, 104.423539, 104.854254, 104.208215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.63, "volume": 5957028, "typical_volume": 4000483.7, "trend": 103.654215, "fair_value": 73.604251, "relative_strength": 1.138288, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.853116, "energy": 27.303627, "activity_lines": [ 105.892667, 105.25891, 105.395743, 104.623485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }