{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11dfbabe-e106-428c-9655-a71af4bbe4dd", "symbol": "TIP", "name": "ISHARES TRUST TIPS BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.174, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.921, "architecture_energy": 74.973, "architecture_maturity": 9.062, "architecture_confidence": 86.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.66, "rotation_up": 11.06, "upward_expansion": 17.68, "deceleration": 37.53, "rotation_down": 73.69, "downward_expansion": 93.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.015805, 107.365399, 107.899446, 108.208151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 107.08, "trend_reference": 108.521154, "distance_from_trend": -0.01328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.573425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.113571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016265, "excess_performance": -0.14189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033856, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027635, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018837, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016265, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.900261, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9812862, "relative_activity": 0.978608, "balance": 0.900261, "dry_up": 0.911405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007003, "annualized_volatility": 0.038122, "from_high_reference": -0.027774, "from_low_reference": 0.006464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.521154, "fair_value_reference": 103.573425, 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107.342077, "volume": 6376406, "typical_volume": 10879072.15, "trend": 108.67689, "fair_value": 103.333763, "relative_strength": -10.980181, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.935331, "energy": 63.489346, "activity_lines": [ 107.866278, 108.112685, 108.470093, 108.619577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 107.481057, "volume": 7158593, "typical_volume": 10782014.0, "trend": 108.655176, "fair_value": 103.39217, "relative_strength": -9.179544, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.53774, "energy": 66.350968, "activity_lines": [ 107.666711, 107.966559, 108.351872, 108.542426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.716668, "volume": 7723814, "typical_volume": 10513800.85, "trend": 108.604375, "fair_value": 103.44849, "relative_strength": -9.028741, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.91913, "energy": 80.252938, "activity_lines": [ 107.283496, 107.710047, 108.17304, 108.417361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.845721, "volume": 11860703, "typical_volume": 10349395.15, "trend": 108.564105, "fair_value": 103.50821, "relative_strength": -9.571158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.153549, "energy": 80.715332, "activity_lines": [ 107.050881, 107.50543, 108.02022, 108.3039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.08, "volume": 9812862, "typical_volume": 10027369.05, "trend": 108.521154, "fair_value": 103.573425, "relative_strength": -12.113571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.921014, "energy": 74.972757, "activity_lines": [ 107.015805, 107.365399, 107.899446, 108.208151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }