{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "11e02748-096c-42f9-bc7f-e852ac4b074e",
    "symbol": "CNAA",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI China A UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 6.884,
    "architecture_energy": 23.312,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.525,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.84,
        "rotation_up": 18.51,
        "upward_expansion": 39.25,
        "deceleration": 85.13,
        "rotation_down": 46.64,
        "downward_expansion": 39.92
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        170.802003,
        173.353093,
        173.931192,
        172.305743
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 174.520004,
    "trend_reference": 170.152,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.025671,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 142.198141,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227302,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.824377,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.064146,
    "excess_performance": -0.106745,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025671,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031305,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.227302,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033135,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088244,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.090319,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.064146,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.928703,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4670,
      "relative_activity": 1.00741,
      "balance": 0.928703,
      "dry_up": 1.217035,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.033521,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.165045,
      "from_high_reference": -0.04425,
      "from_low_reference": 0.247106
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 170.152,
      "fair_value_reference": 142.198141,
      "structural_low": 156.360001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.009332,
        "positive_rate": 0.52381,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.52381,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024589,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.066233,
        "worst_return": -0.089801,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.008556,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.026495,
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        "best_return": 0.052006,
        "worst_return": -0.0991,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "median_return": 0.022282,
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        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.103248,
        "worst_return": -0.087492,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "worst_return": 0.006722,
        "sufficient": false
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 5137.3,
        "trend": 164.435,
        "fair_value": 139.513718,
        "relative_strength": -1.085485,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 6002,
        "typical_volume": 5306.7,
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 139.975512,
        "relative_strength": -2.53546,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "trend": 165.936666,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 141.109679,
        "relative_strength": -5.060048,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 4631.9,
        "trend": 169.102666,
        "fair_value": 141.384359,
        "relative_strength": -5.566306,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.761338,
        "energy": 70.920755,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 8173,
        "typical_volume": 4781.55,
        "trend": 169.36,
        "fair_value": 141.593525,
        "relative_strength": -10.541727,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.152159,
        "energy": 15.570461,
        "activity_lines": [
          174.916672,
          176.045093,
          174.247858,
          172.107226
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 170.240005,
        "volume": 5962,
        "typical_volume": 4853.7,
        "trend": 169.724333,
        "fair_value": 141.773269,
        "relative_strength": -7.954765,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.561799,
        "energy": 20.098421,
        "activity_lines": [
          172.539339,
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          174.109002,
          172.164001
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 167.339996,
        "volume": 3762,
        "typical_volume": 4781.65,
        "trend": 169.938666,
        "fair_value": 141.941923,
        "relative_strength": -10.040486,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.030113,
        "energy": 25.813082,
        "activity_lines": [
          169.991336,
          173.440002,
          173.676049,
          172.010172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 174.520004,
        "volume": 4670,
        "typical_volume": 4635.65,
        "trend": 170.152,
        "fair_value": 142.198141,
        "relative_strength": -8.824377,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 6.884364,
        "energy": 23.311602,
        "activity_lines": [
          170.802003,
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          173.931192,
          172.305743
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}