{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11ee3611-0318-4abb-830a-1557996cd9a8", "symbol": "FEUZ", "name": "FIRST TRUST EUROZONE ALPHADEX ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.794, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.088, "architecture_energy": 54.362, "architecture_maturity": 31.903, "architecture_confidence": 81.09, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.03, "rotation_up": 55.96, "upward_expansion": 81.04, "deceleration": 51.19, "rotation_down": 17.83, "downward_expansion": 10.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.561047, 67.123701, 66.852768, 66.214902 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.78, "trend_reference": 65.580461, "distance_from_trend": 0.048788, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.752964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.410786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.929692, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04141, "excess_performance": -0.146043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03694, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.410786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014857, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.587896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22363, "relative_activity": 0.53421, "balance": 1.587896, "dry_up": 0.62514, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025176, "annualized_volatility": 0.198775, "from_high_reference": -0.058066, "from_low_reference": 0.238117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.580461, "fair_value_reference": 48.752964, "structural_low": 57.437011, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.011999, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.008138, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.066937, "worst_return": -0.116784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.044938, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.06473, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.198794, "worst_return": -0.134779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052126, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.020562, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.310192, "worst_return": -0.043696, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 66.39, "volume": 53277, "typical_volume": 47158.95, "trend": 65.202257, "fair_value": 48.357285, "relative_strength": -2.100887, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.053207, "energy": 17.192871, "activity_lines": [ 66.38912, 66.56043, 66.340945, 65.826888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.8268, "volume": 22942, "typical_volume": 42939.05, "trend": 65.390319, "fair_value": 48.55108, "relative_strength": -0.530072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.754069, "energy": 32.528752, "activity_lines": [ 66.89194, 66.766377, 66.568158, 65.996213 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.78, "volume": 22363, "typical_volume": 41861.85, "trend": 65.580461, "fair_value": 48.752964, "relative_strength": -3.929692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.088047, "energy": 54.362374, "activity_lines": [ 67.561047, 67.123701, 66.852768, 66.214902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }