{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11f0dd5a-2d85-497a-b4eb-947c4a052601", "symbol": "EMKT", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap II UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.287, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.113, "architecture_energy": 24.047, "architecture_maturity": 65.169, "architecture_confidence": 78.726, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.55, "rotation_up": 18.19, "upward_expansion": 52.29, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.66, "downward_expansion": 18.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.2992, 18.5932, 18.5376, 18.110245 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.468, "trend_reference": 17.553333, "distance_from_trend": 0.052108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.536385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.364323, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.515975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126372, "excess_performance": -0.044519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052108, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.364323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126372, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101682, "relative_activity": 1.206714, "balance": 0.783136, "dry_up": 1.538162, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043418, "annualized_volatility": 0.224795, "from_high_reference": -0.07345, "from_low_reference": 0.36537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.553333, "fair_value_reference": 13.536385, "structural_low": 15.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015012, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.008283, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.128307, "worst_return": -0.017269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057939, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.036204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232212, "worst_return": -0.005217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001619, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.336116, "worst_return": -0.002789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065899, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.621722, "energy": 58.930462, "activity_lines": [ 19.225733, 19.080473, 18.411724, 17.882778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.962, "volume": 169718, "typical_volume": 81147.3, "trend": 17.263333, "fair_value": 13.400205, "relative_strength": -1.534711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.898302, "energy": 35.06678, "activity_lines": [ 18.791333, 18.905091, 18.430924, 17.934542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.26, "volume": 103229, "typical_volume": 81473.0, "trend": 17.377, "fair_value": 13.44359, "relative_strength": 0.129522, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.74266, "energy": 23.03082, "activity_lines": [ 18.5272, 18.7964, 18.474733, 17.998843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.101999, "volume": 143815, "typical_volume": 85092.6, "trend": 17.466266, "fair_value": 13.487872, "relative_strength": -1.516907, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.105587, "energy": 23.941391, "activity_lines": [ 18.316, 18.658036, 18.4934, 18.045617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.468, "volume": 101682, "typical_volume": 84263.55, "trend": 17.553333, "fair_value": 13.536385, "relative_strength": -2.515975, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.112829, "energy": 24.046538, "activity_lines": [ 18.2992, 18.5932, 18.5376, 18.110245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }