{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11f6532c-711b-4233-a992-e191fd74c7c3", "symbol": "7201", "name": "Arab Sea Information Systems Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.897, "architecture_energy": 34.832, "architecture_maturity": 89.198, "architecture_confidence": 90.268, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.01, "rotation_up": 23.04, "upward_expansion": 6.12, "deceleration": 50.16, "rotation_down": 48.42, "downward_expansion": 74.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.328667, 3.359455, 3.385429, 3.454538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.36, "trend_reference": 3.597, "distance_from_trend": -0.065888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.809872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421674, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.87835, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176471, "excess_performance": -0.144641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092812, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421674, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005412, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057961, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.587461, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1960322, "relative_activity": 0.585071, "balance": 1.587461, "dry_up": 0.483148, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054029, "annualized_volatility": 0.228227, "from_high_reference": -0.397849, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.597, "fair_value_reference": 5.809872, "structural_low": 3.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020476, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.328509, "worst_return": -0.187005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041971, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.012495, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.136045, "worst_return": -0.174877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.121821, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.05358, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.234756, "worst_return": -0.227166, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -45.400917, "energy": 23.135138, "activity_lines": [ 3.386, 3.370727, 3.412714, 3.495892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.27, "volume": 1130159, "typical_volume": 3307831.25, "trend": 3.620667, "fair_value": 5.839551, "relative_strength": -18.909993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.615308, "energy": 38.196549, "activity_lines": [ 3.338, 3.357091, 3.394524, 3.471355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.36, "volume": 1960322, "typical_volume": 3350572.25, "trend": 3.597, "fair_value": 5.809872, "relative_strength": -17.87835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.896629, "energy": 34.83165, "activity_lines": [ 3.328667, 3.359455, 3.385429, 3.454538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }