{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1200b913-a8d6-44eb-b377-984a3101e668", "symbol": "322400", "name": "NH-Amundi Hanaro E-Commerce ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.304, "architecture_energy": 40.835, "architecture_maturity": 45.229, "architecture_confidence": 92.612, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.85, "rotation_up": 20.37, "upward_expansion": 5.27, "deceleration": 57.7, "rotation_down": 53.65, "downward_expansion": 78.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 10361.333333, 10483.636364, 10835.010459, 11158.909249 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10430.0, "trend_reference": 11636.383366, "distance_from_trend": -0.103673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10581.047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.763175, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17929, "excess_performance": -0.409118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036873, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165868, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.147766, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20906, "relative_activity": 0.45989, "balance": 0.147766, "dry_up": 0.539012, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079209, "annualized_volatility": 0.307014, "from_high_reference": -0.264792, "from_low_reference": 0.080829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11636.383366, "fair_value_reference": 10581.047, "structural_low": 9650.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.012255, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.005208, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.110925, "worst_return": -0.146592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.035829, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.020528, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.061129, "worst_return": -0.124308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046338, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.071399, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.107075, "worst_return": 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-40.423451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.005201, "energy": 76.268174, "activity_lines": [ 10432.666667, 10727.909091, 11087.995494, 11426.266604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10385.0, "volume": 10255, "typical_volume": 48188.55, "trend": 11753.243294, "fair_value": 10585.195575, "relative_strength": -37.614196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.441445, "energy": 61.591092, "activity_lines": [ 10378.666667, 10632.818182, 10997.66595, 11335.005158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10285.0, "volume": 50625, "typical_volume": 49345.15, "trend": 11691.243294, "fair_value": 10583.370731, "relative_strength": -36.283199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.763687, "energy": 47.027422, "activity_lines": [ 10348.333333, 10538.181818, 10905.840476, 11240.279784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10430.0, "volume": 20906, "typical_volume": 45458.65, "trend": 11636.383366, "fair_value": 10581.047, "relative_strength": -30.763175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.304121, "energy": 40.835235, "activity_lines": [ 10361.333333, 10483.636364, 10835.010459, 11158.909249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }