{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12051851-20a6-43c7-9a56-8b2a27efe1f0", "symbol": "DCMFINSERV", "name": "DCM Financial Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.223, "architecture_energy": 13.435, "architecture_maturity": 21.459, "architecture_confidence": 83.414, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.51, "rotation_up": 23.44, "upward_expansion": 41.87, "deceleration": 80.95, "rotation_down": 33.48, "downward_expansion": 31.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.205333, 5.277455, 5.28919, 5.276989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.29, "trend_reference": 5.161667, "distance_from_trend": 0.024863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.846795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095231, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.141905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.175556, "excess_performance": 0.219265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095231, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063077, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11522, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.195008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145681, "relative_activity": 2.650111, "balance": 2.195008, "dry_up": 1.188208, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083321, "annualized_volatility": 1.036182, "from_high_reference": -0.381287, "from_low_reference": 0.42973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.161667, "fair_value_reference": 5.846795, "structural_low": 3.7, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.021473, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.027756, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 1.547945, "worst_return": -0.179625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.07069, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.077188, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.631579, "worst_return": -0.336788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041237, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.111258, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.221902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.197368, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.016408, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.356044, "worst_return": -0.316062, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.280916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104922, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.294574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.255898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.368421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018553, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.35, "volume": 58163, "typical_volume": 163421.25, "trend": 4.581667, "fair_value": 3.576282, "relative_strength": -24.484113, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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"energy": 18.010443, "activity_lines": [ 5.416, 5.440545, 5.370905, 5.275355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.15, "volume": 24859, "typical_volume": 137453.25, "trend": 5.168333, "fair_value": 5.832821, "relative_strength": -2.71403, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.929883, "energy": 11.826455, "activity_lines": [ 5.323333, 5.403636, 5.350905, 5.273871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.02, "volume": 51551, "typical_volume": 138010.7, "trend": 5.159667, "fair_value": 5.835833, "relative_strength": -2.54594, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.945791, "energy": 13.965678, "activity_lines": [ 5.211333, 5.338, 5.314857, 5.264301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.22, "volume": 39180, "typical_volume": 79387.35, "trend": 5.153667, "fair_value": 5.84109, "relative_strength": -0.912219, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.260571, "energy": 18.159899, "activity_lines": [ 5.187333, 5.302909, 5.293476, 5.268194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.29, "volume": 145681, "typical_volume": 54971.65, "trend": 5.161667, "fair_value": 5.846795, "relative_strength": -0.141905, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.22283, "energy": 13.435106, "activity_lines": [ 5.205333, 5.277455, 5.28919, 5.276989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }