{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12066e7c-4f83-4695-adde-887ffa77e063", "symbol": "600764", "name": "China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.132, "architecture_energy": 59.429, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.045, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.76, "rotation_up": 29.11, "upward_expansion": 11.7, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 45.71, "downward_expansion": 80.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.176667, 18.230545, 19.549, 21.069716 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.190001, "trend_reference": 23.252266, "distance_from_trend": -0.217711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.129882, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276161, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.909451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323037, "excess_performance": -0.279833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276161, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.358959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35974878, "relative_activity": 1.578968, "balance": 0.358959, "dry_up": 1.424539, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074132, "annualized_volatility": 0.305963, "from_high_reference": -0.512977, "from_low_reference": 0.080808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.252266, "fair_value_reference": 25.129882, "structural_low": 16.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.009759, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.024524, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.19627, "worst_return": -0.181309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013614, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009026, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.345846, "worst_return": -0.27994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025405, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009337, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.280894, "worst_return": -0.310715, "sufficient": true 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"energy": 80.811244, "activity_lines": [ 18.324666, 19.176727, 21.033905, 22.6031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.15, "volume": 26358602, "typical_volume": 24334024.7, "trend": 24.1108, "fair_value": 25.279454, "relative_strength": -34.61528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.161651, "energy": 72.299404, "activity_lines": [ 17.89, 18.622727, 20.500048, 22.132908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.18, "volume": 31384263, "typical_volume": 22668305.7, "trend": 23.833588, "fair_value": 25.227611, "relative_strength": -30.656996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.824729, "energy": 65.132218, "activity_lines": [ 17.938, 18.386909, 20.122, 21.750275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.65, "volume": 36107835, "typical_volume": 22796974.0, "trend": 23.555083, "fair_value": 25.178406, "relative_strength": -28.205881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.645629, "energy": 62.849778, "activity_lines": [ 18.178667, 18.323273, 19.83819, 21.41585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.190001, "volume": 35974878, "typical_volume": 22783788.75, "trend": 23.252266, "fair_value": 25.129882, "relative_strength": -30.909451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.13208, "energy": 59.429245, "activity_lines": [ 18.176667, 18.230545, 19.549, 21.069716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }