{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1216460f-dad7-4ee2-90fb-6eaadc2ec817", "symbol": "TS0U", "name": "OUE Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 78.555, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.664, "architecture_energy": 19.026, "architecture_maturity": 27.225, "architecture_confidence": 63.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.83, "rotation_up": 32.73, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 43.49, "rotation_down": 24.61, "downward_expansion": 52.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.353971, 0.352048, 0.353284, 0.355134 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.35, "trend_reference": 0.35704, "distance_from_trend": -0.019717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.279171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.189541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014085, "excess_performance": -0.16892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010426, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.634973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10371300, "relative_activity": 1.353892, "balance": 0.634973, "dry_up": 1.289355, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032331, "annualized_volatility": 0.124202, "from_high_reference": -0.070926, "from_low_reference": 0.149425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.35704, "fair_value_reference": 0.279171, "structural_low": 0.338081, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.004244, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.096151, "worst_return": -0.073531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.022422, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.159458, "worst_return": -0.288395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030826, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010535, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.20162, "worst_return": -0.216108, "sufficient": 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[ 0.34769, 0.350338, 0.354691, 0.356059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.347741, "volume": 12841400, "typical_volume": 9898320.0, "trend": 0.355952, "fair_value": 0.276408, "relative_strength": -12.749764, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.615687, "energy": 54.933231, "activity_lines": [ 0.347227, 0.34937, 0.353711, 0.35555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.35257, "volume": 8875300, "typical_volume": 9247355.0, "trend": 0.356265, "fair_value": 0.277058, "relative_strength": -12.112175, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.751969, "energy": 41.173313, "activity_lines": [ 0.348857, 0.349594, 0.353297, 0.355332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.36223, "volume": 9522900, "typical_volume": 8257440.0, "trend": 0.356901, "fair_value": 0.27777, "relative_strength": -10.901876, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.25255, "energy": 11.111555, "activity_lines": [ 0.353536, 0.351709, 0.353885, 0.355717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.355, "volume": 10738200, "typical_volume": 7587100.0, "trend": 0.357134, "fair_value": 0.27846, "relative_strength": -13.175224, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.039785, "energy": 17.412407, "activity_lines": [ 0.35499, 0.352379, 0.353823, 0.355594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.35, "volume": 10371300, "typical_volume": 7660360.0, "trend": 0.35704, "fair_value": 0.279171, "relative_strength": -15.189541, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.664208, "energy": 19.025938, "activity_lines": [ 0.353971, 0.352048, 0.353284, 0.355134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }