{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1218811a-ae58-4fe0-bce7-33ba72902d4c", "symbol": "301059", "name": "Jinsanjiang (Zhaoqing) Silicon Material Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.732, "architecture_energy": 53.852, "architecture_maturity": 18.42, "architecture_confidence": 78.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.86, "rotation_up": 12.16, "upward_expansion": 7.93, "deceleration": 48.82, "rotation_down": 65.84, "downward_expansion": 78.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.08, 11.458364, 12.485232, 12.953366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.31, "trend_reference": 13.388533, "distance_from_trend": -0.155247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.108144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018172, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.053866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162634, "excess_performance": -0.170033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011177, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018172, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12543618, "relative_activity": 0.692457, "balance": 0.766713, "dry_up": 1.190258, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115582, "annualized_volatility": 0.485289, "from_high_reference": -0.315926, "from_low_reference": 0.170807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.388533, "fair_value_reference": 11.108144, "structural_low": 9.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.015773, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.321889, "worst_return": -0.395851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110727, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050592, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.445432, "worst_return": -0.321593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077022, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068134, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.422589, "worst_return": -0.327769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 13.593112, "fair_value": 11.171645, "relative_strength": -11.749841, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.996055, "energy": 67.815471, "activity_lines": [ 12.144, 12.903343, 13.466676, 13.625223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.02, "volume": 36565445, "typical_volume": 20109863.25, "trend": 13.559518, "fair_value": 11.156075, "relative_strength": -14.11888, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.05849, "energy": 81.532975, "activity_lines": [ 11.68, 12.448154, 13.201632, 13.459216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.13, "volume": 23898717, "typical_volume": 19305209.45, "trend": 13.475555, "fair_value": 11.135969, "relative_strength": -20.894548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.84808, "energy": 80.3383, "activity_lines": [ 11.138, 11.893567, 12.870615, 13.237957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.18, "volume": 13236655, "typical_volume": 18510761.25, "trend": 13.425605, "fair_value": 11.121178, "relative_strength": -10.993889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.290621, "energy": 59.625638, "activity_lines": [ 11.087333, 11.63, 12.663189, 13.089857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.31, "volume": 12543618, "typical_volume": 18114645.35, "trend": 13.388533, "fair_value": 11.108144, "relative_strength": -14.053866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.731979, "energy": 53.851738, "activity_lines": [ 11.08, 11.458364, 12.485232, 12.953366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }