{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1218e1a8-18fd-400f-9ed5-22959dd570c6", "symbol": "ITWN", "name": "iShares MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.04, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.913, "architecture_energy": 26.63, "architecture_maturity": 72.679, "architecture_confidence": 89.617, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.0, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 59.49, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.82, "downward_expansion": 20.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 186.315996, 189.938543, 186.751904, 176.669117 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 190.759995, "trend_reference": 162.905332, "distance_from_trend": 0.170987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.648477, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.858381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.197022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.463108, "excess_performance": 0.380224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184755, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.858381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.22197, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.463108, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14873, "relative_activity": 1.676936, "balance": 0.490952, "dry_up": 1.645028, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065193, "annualized_volatility": 0.36955, "from_high_reference": -0.073306, "from_low_reference": 0.882939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.905332, "fair_value_reference": 102.648477, "structural_low": 127.620003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020751, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.00485, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.247894, "worst_return": -0.086971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052787, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.043444, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.530535, "worst_return": -0.200738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074322, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.639513, "worst_return": -0.212799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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193.353453, 182.817237, 171.33673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 184.880005, "volume": 3949, "typical_volume": 8773.1, "trend": 158.565332, "fair_value": 101.096654, "relative_strength": 22.035353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.078397, "energy": 39.579153, "activity_lines": [ 188.845333, 192.141818, 184.266667, 173.181849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 182.539993, "volume": 12813, "typical_volume": 8618.35, "trend": 160.681999, "fair_value": 101.841666, "relative_strength": 19.455484, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.331792, "energy": 25.055666, "activity_lines": [ 185.897331, 190.278908, 185.238952, 174.728601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 190.759995, "volume": 14873, "typical_volume": 8869.15, "trend": 162.905332, "fair_value": 102.648477, "relative_strength": 22.197022, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.912852, "energy": 26.629826, "activity_lines": [ 186.315996, 189.938543, 186.751904, 176.669117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }