{ "ticker": { "uuid": "121a7d3d-c1f3-4807-a0c8-db2a5d9b9ffe", "symbol": "SGDJ", "name": "SPROTT ETF TR JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.902, "architecture_energy": 20.728, "architecture_maturity": 37.387, "architecture_confidence": 58.778, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.33, "rotation_up": 25.78, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 61.47, "rotation_down": 41.01, "downward_expansion": 68.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.800107, 78.758138, 81.80146, 84.788621 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 91.63, "trend_reference": 89.11494, "distance_from_trend": 0.028223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.875949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.913905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.487381, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036387, "excess_performance": -0.162011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000593, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.913905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014874, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036387, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.760272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263304, "relative_activity": 0.840982, "balance": 0.760272, "dry_up": 0.733099, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100609, "annualized_volatility": 0.623867, "from_high_reference": -0.208551, "from_low_reference": 0.940674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.11494, "fair_value_reference": 47.875949, "structural_low": 69.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.036676, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.028508, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.267228, "worst_return": -0.205292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008042, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015299, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107745, "worst_return": -0.24762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047877, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.177752, "worst_return": -0.230639, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-16.03923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.502707, "energy": 63.7685, "activity_lines": [ 76.186, 78.595273, 83.226286, 86.619763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.1972, "volume": 237804, "typical_volume": 334552.95, "trend": 89.377273, "fair_value": 47.123431, "relative_strength": -11.868401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.491256, "energy": 55.185783, "activity_lines": [ 75.347733, 77.527127, 82.1863, 85.673194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.06, "volume": 183000, "typical_volume": 323102.7, "trend": 89.023607, "fair_value": 47.439425, "relative_strength": -15.656429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.423261, "energy": 55.894758, "activity_lines": [ 74.323253, 76.341905, 81.06207, 84.620466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.63, "volume": 263304, "typical_volume": 313091.3, "trend": 89.11494, "fair_value": 47.875949, "relative_strength": 1.487381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.90171, "energy": 20.728155, "activity_lines": [ 79.800107, 78.758138, 81.80146, 84.788621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }