{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1220d327-fd14-4a2c-ba79-b24e39549f81", "symbol": "HEMO", "name": "Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.468, "architecture_energy": 87.592, "architecture_maturity": 61.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.399, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 59.21, "downward_expansion": 97.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.772667, 7.207545, 200.198643, 382.482828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.35, "trend_reference": 579.134333, "distance_from_trend": -0.989035, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 595.532243, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.119691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.994227, "excess_performance": -1.045463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.989035, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275735, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989337, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.072878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.991197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.00014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.994227, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.773013, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44649, "relative_activity": 0.605975, "balance": 0.773013, "dry_up": 0.725876, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 11.327159, "annualized_volatility": 6.339526, "from_high_reference": -0.996472, "from_low_reference": 0.067227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 579.134333, "fair_value_reference": 595.532243, "structural_low": 5.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.034091, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.028297, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 4.182906, "worst_return": -0.432283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.168182, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.163116, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 6.177814, "worst_return": -0.505109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.082569, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.080507, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.88907, "worst_return": -0.608557, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.417571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.560664, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.430189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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618.351167, "fair_value": 603.336762, "relative_strength": -98.986083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.511057, "energy": 87.854935, "activity_lines": [ 7.613333, 45.230545, 290.262048, 460.255656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.145, "volume": 67616, "typical_volume": 77628.2, "trend": 599.622667, "fair_value": 599.465897, "relative_strength": -99.149355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.764072, "energy": 88.403013, "activity_lines": [ 7.103667, 19.983545, 242.509024, 420.758484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.35, "volume": 44649, "typical_volume": 73681.3, "trend": 579.134333, "fair_value": 595.532243, "relative_strength": -99.119691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.468453, "energy": 87.59171, "activity_lines": [ 6.772667, 7.207545, 200.198643, 382.482828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }