{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12270ed7-b6f3-49c8-9a38-db84a90e4870", "symbol": "000539", "name": "Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.739, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.758, "architecture_energy": 34.947, "architecture_maturity": 2.334, "architecture_confidence": 51.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.17, "rotation_up": 15.47, "upward_expansion": 19.84, "deceleration": 54.83, "rotation_down": 60.81, "downward_expansion": 47.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.730196, 6.042867, 6.470345, 6.353886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.01, "trend_reference": 6.035216, "distance_from_trend": -0.004178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.144162, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.523169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.229039, "excess_performance": 0.221639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004178, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.229039, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.79255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411731394, "relative_activity": 0.701495, "balance": 0.79255, "dry_up": 1.007519, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182296, "annualized_volatility": 0.802976, "from_high_reference": -0.365364, "from_low_reference": 0.362812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.035216, "fair_value_reference": 5.144162, "structural_low": 4.71, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049808, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057099, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.025, "worst_return": -0.117363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002299, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.117991, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019231, "worst_return": -0.209003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.072649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095496, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197701, "worst_return": -0.16881, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065934, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070994, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063043, "active": false }, { 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.2708, "energy": 22.955801, "activity_lines": [ 6.027649, 6.640856, 6.694628, 6.392251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.66, "volume": 1017538345, "typical_volume": 587498256.75, "trend": 5.949549, "fair_value": 5.163164, "relative_strength": 5.08098, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.028756, "energy": 28.350412, "activity_lines": [ 5.80055, 6.404375, 6.613311, 6.375936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.58, "volume": 453556581, "typical_volume": 596689108.1, "trend": 5.982216, "fair_value": 5.151299, "relative_strength": 5.182088, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.282292, "energy": 32.961429, "activity_lines": [ 5.662785, 6.175894, 6.521995, 6.352094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.01, "volume": 411731394, "typical_volume": 586934509.95, "trend": 6.035216, "fair_value": 5.144162, "relative_strength": 7.523169, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.758139, "energy": 34.94654, "activity_lines": [ 5.730196, 6.042867, 6.470345, 6.353886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }