{ "ticker": { "uuid": "122d4cf0-91f0-409f-b4f3-33592a50b9d2", "symbol": "EAOK", "name": "ISHARES ESG AWARE CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.976, "architecture_energy": 24.638, "architecture_maturity": 43.634, "architecture_confidence": 71.533, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.16, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 55.08, "deceleration": 90.12, "rotation_down": 29.45, "downward_expansion": 21.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.007805, 28.032453, 27.983736, 27.851686 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.2544, "trend_reference": 27.714136, "distance_from_trend": 0.019494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.016351, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.023829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024191, "excess_performance": -0.101434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019494, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010855, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.203845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 823, "relative_activity": 0.287471, "balance": 0.203845, "dry_up": 0.344144, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009303, "annualized_volatility": 0.067748, "from_high_reference": -5.1e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.086291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.714136, "fair_value_reference": 25.016351, "structural_low": 26.640607, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019809, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.018363, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.023309, "worst_return": -0.018937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023382, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043405, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.046548, "worst_return": 0.002846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027235, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075187, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071263, "worst_return": 0.019411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008887, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.075776, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013836, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.669411, "volume": 470, "typical_volume": 14845.05, "trend": 21.860901, "fair_value": 22.764191, "relative_strength": -6.90915, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.295069, "energy": 11.501263, "activity_lines": [ 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4920.05, "trend": 27.624298, "fair_value": 24.867236, "relative_strength": -7.065217, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.018186, "energy": 56.624422, "activity_lines": [ 28.12789, 28.077047, 27.892384, 27.771819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.965281, "volume": 1540, "typical_volume": 4640.25, "trend": 27.65103, "fair_value": 24.903471, "relative_strength": -5.891586, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.512038, "energy": 38.257585, "activity_lines": [ 28.071221, 28.065726, 27.917391, 27.793817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.779309, "volume": 1170, "typical_volume": 3215.5, "trend": 27.666817, "fair_value": 24.938466, "relative_strength": -5.804776, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.502143, "energy": 20.406738, "activity_lines": [ 27.960572, 28.021282, 27.924258, 27.802094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.868803, "volume": 408, "typical_volume": 2889.0, "trend": 27.6877, "fair_value": 24.975742, "relative_strength": -6.31116, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.421241, "energy": 20.186286, "activity_lines": [ 27.910267, 27.991641, 27.937628, 27.815125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.2544, "volume": 823, "typical_volume": 2862.9, "trend": 27.714136, "fair_value": 25.016351, "relative_strength": -8.023829, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.975661, "energy": 24.637568, "activity_lines": [ 28.007805, 28.032453, 27.983736, 27.851686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }